Before the season, analysts across the country predicted Mississippi State University football would finish with a 6-6 record. Three games in, MSU is blowing those expectations out of the water.
After Saturday’s victory over LSU—the first one at home since 1999 and the largest in number since 1984—it is time we reevaluate MSU football. History has a tendency to repeat itself and this team is similar to the 2014 team, which was ranked No. 1 under Dak Prescott and went 10-3.
Naturally, MSU has the same types of players on their roster, as head coach Dan Mullen has a certain style of player he recruits.
The most obvious example is at quarterback. It is no doubt Nick Fitzgerald is, and Prescott was, a dominant presence on the field. Fitzgerald is a dual-threat quarterback cable of long runs and throws the ball well enough to keep opposing defenses honest.
Admittedly, while Dak Prescott was also a dual-threat quarterback, he was a better passer than Fitzgerald, and MSU threw the ball more in 2014 than they have this season.
MSU’s offense utilizes Fitzgerald similar to how they utilized Prescott in 2014, they just run the ball more. So far this season, Fitzgerald is averaging more yardage per run then Prescott.
Although Fitzgerald is not as strong of a passer as Prescott was, his ability to run and make plays enables him to create passing situations for positive yardage and even touchdowns, like Prescott did.
The running back position is another place where the teams are similar. Aeris Williams is playing lights out this season. He is averaging 112 yards per game and he has run the ball consistently. Josh Robinson was the running back in 2014, and he was also the feature back of that offense, making a large percentage of the carries.
When Mullen has a good running team, MSU has good season. That being said, if Williams continues to play like he has so far, he can help carry the team to a 10-2 record—maybe even better than what they achieved in 2014.
At receiver, it is hard to compare the 2014 team to this year’s team. Fitzgerald and Williams have such an impact on the ground that the offense has not relied on the passing game yet.
The biggest difference in this group and 2014’s is the size of the receivers. The 2014 team had guys like De’Runnya Wilson and Fred Ross outside, who are 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-2. Compare them to this year’s top two receivers on this team, Donald Gray and Keith Mixon, both of whom are 5-foot-10 or shorter.
This changes the way the receivers are utilized. In 2014, MSU threw a lot of back shoulder throws to the outside; this season MSU works it over the middle to the smaller, swifter guys.
The defense is much better this season compared to 2014, limiting teams to 206 yards per game compared to the 2014 team that gave up 424.4 a game. MSU has only played three games this season compared to 2014’s full season, which skews the stats, but the point stands.
The biggest difference on defense is how this team has limited explosive plays. The average gain per play is 3.4 yards and the average points per game are 9.3, while in 2014 MSU gave up 5.6 a play.
This defense is better than the one in 2014. The team swarms to the ball carrier and forces turnovers, giving the offense extra possessions.
Even at the beginning of the season, it is interesting to see how this team compares to the famed 2014 team. Georgia and Auburn will be huge road tests, but if they are able to get these two key victories, we are looking at a team similar to the one from 2014 if not better.
Early in the football season, history repeats itself
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