It is hard to understand fully the significance of the danger presented by Russia’s Aug. 8 invasion of Georgia, a small democratic nation on the east side of the Black Sea.
However, Russia’s neighbors, including Poland, Ukraine and Moldova, recognize that this aggression extends far beyond the borders of Georgia. This was an attack on democracies in Russia’s “sphere of influence,” a chilling warning to free nations against developing further ties with the United States or the European Union. Equally alarming, perhaps, is the developing relationship between Russia and Iran.
After signing a cease-fire agreement promising to return immediately to pre-Aug. 8 positions, Russia pressed on to within 30 miles of the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, utterly destroying Georgia’s military and severely damaging its transportation infrastructure. Russian and South Ossetian looters followed behind, doing further damage to ordinary Georgian citizens’ homes and businesses. Russia still remains well beyond the pre-invasion borders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, clearly in violation of the cease-fire agreement. On Aug. 29, Russia announced its plans to formally join South Ossetia to the Russian empire.
International Reaction
While Russia’s invasion was still in progress, on Aug. 10 the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared Tehran’s readiness to aid Russia. Iran’s help was not needed, and this was little more than a diplomatic gesture, yet it demonstrates the developing ties between these two anti-western nations. For the past few years, Russia has been facilitating Iran’s nuclear development program, under the guise that it is peaceful. In reality, it’s doubtful that Russia cares whether it is entirely peaceful or not, because a nuclear-armed Iran serves only to weaken the west and thus increase Russia’s own position in the world.
Tie Russia’s questionable nuclear ties with Iran to Russia’s opposition of a U.S. missile-defense shield in Eastern Europe. That defense shield would be designed and intended to dispatch any western-bound Iranian missiles. While Russia is potentially helping Iran develop weapons, the Kremlin is preventing us from installing defenses.
After months of stalling, Poland was so appalled by Russia’s invasion of Georgia that on Aug. 14 the Polish government suddenly signed the missile-defense agreement with the U.S. Russia’s deputy chief of staff Anatoly Nogovitsy retaliated, “Poland, by deploying [the system] is exposing itself to a strike – 100 percent.” He went on to state that Russia would use nuclear force “against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them.” In essence, Russia told Poland, “Install missiles, and we will nuke you!”
Ukraine, which borders Georgia, also took serious notice of Russia’s invasion. Prior to the invasion, Georgia and Ukraine had both been aiming for North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership. One of Putin’s main aims in supporting separatist enclaves in Georgia was probably to prevent any such alignment with the west. Georgia’s chances of joining NATO are shot, and a clear, ominous message has been sent to Ukraine, which incidentally also hoped to join the EU this year. A furious Ukrainian president, Viktor Yuschenko, offered his own missile warning systems for use by the EU and the U.S. Russia responded and added Ukraine to its list of nuclear targets. Analysts argue that neither NATO nor the EU will add Ukraine under the present tension created by Russia.
Another small former Soviet republic, Moldova, has had aspirations of joining the EU, but is largely inhibited by another separatist movement in its own country. This movement, like the movements in Georgia, is backed by Russia. The Russian military made it possible for the separatist region of Transnistria to break away from Moldova in 1991, and Russian “piece-keepers” (pun intended) maintain the illegitimate nation (you won’t find it on any map except Transnistria’s own). Why? This destabilizes the region and prevents Moldova from attaining EU membership, which leaves Russia with the strong hand. But as a result, Moldova is the poorest country in Europe. The Russian ambassador to Moldova warned that Moldova should pay careful attention to what happened in Georgia, so that a similar “bloody and catastrophic trend of events” would not happen to them also.
The U.S. Factor
In my own view, many Americans wrongly perceive the United States as being involved in world affairs purely for our own good, and at the expense of others. Naturally, our foreign policy looks out for our own interests, but we are unique as a nation in that as we protect ourselves, we also make tremendous sacrifices in order to preserve, or renew, the freedoms and well-being of other peoples. Ultimately, that’s good for the whole world.
Russia, in contrast, is a nation that seeks out its own greatness at the expense of others. Our own neighbors don’t fear us (not even Cuba). Russia’s own democratic neighbors, however, are quaking in their boots as Russia demands that they submit to the Kremlin or face the same “bloody and catastrophic trend of events” that was wrought in Georgia or even face a nuclear strike, “100 percent.”
Should we sit back and allow the thoroughly corrupt, authoritarian regime in Russia to oppress democratic nations in Eastern Europe, to the detriment of global energy supply and global economies? Should we do nothing about Iran and not install a missile-defense system?
A globally dominant Russia, not to mention a nuclear Iran, would quickly have the world yearning for the return of the U.S.
Will Eastern European countries reject Russia’s threats and continue to seek free governments and economies? To do it they will need to know that we are willing to stand behind them diplomatically, and militarily if needed.
We certainly have the power right now, but do we have the national will? Russia is boldly gambling that our own will to stand behind these nations has softened. However, if we delay, we may find that by the time we do have the willingness, the work will be a lot harder, and a real war will be inevitable.
Closing our eyes will not make it go away.
Nathan Smelser is a senior majoring in mechanical engineering. He can be contacted at
[email protected].