Every spring, Hollywood’s finest gather together to honor their peers in a celebration of the best (or more often, most popular) cinema achievements of the previous year. Every spring pundits and analysts spend endless hours trying to predict who will take home the little gold guy when the ceremony is over. Every spring they are more wrong in their predictions than in the previous winner. This year is no different, I’m sure. And here I go, joining the fray and throwing my hat into the ring for the first time (in print, at least).
This year the Academy Awards come at a dark time in the national consciousness, but maybe the glitz and glamour of such a spectacle is exactly what the country could use to take its mind off of more serious matters. So when emcee Steve Martin takes the stage of the Kodak Theatre on Sunday night and riffs on Saddam and Dubbya, let your brain idle and just drink in the sea of diamonds and designer fashions. Revel in the upset victories, marvel at Dick Clark’s agelessness and groan at the endless tributes and musical numbers. Most of all, have fun (and pray “Chicago” doesn’t win every award!).
So without any further ado, here goes my stab at the wacky world of Oscar prognostication.
The contenders for Best Picture are “Chicago,” “Gangs of New York,” “The Hours,” “Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers” and “The Pianist.”
Will win: “Chicago” (it’s great; everyone loves it, and it’s got hype and Miramax behind it. It can’t lose.).
Should win: “The Pianist” (the only film that could upset “Chicago”).
Should have been nominated: “Road to Perdition.”
The contenders for Best Director are Pedro Almodovar (“Talk to Her”), Stephen Daldry (“The Hours”), Rob Marshall (“Chicago”), Roman Polanski (“The Pianist”) and Martin Scorsese (“Gangs of New York”).
Will win: Scorsese or Polanski may have a shot, but this is Marshall’s to lose.
Should win: Polanski or Marshall.
Should have been nominated: Todd Haynes (“Far from Heaven”).
The contenders for Best Actor are Adrien Brody (“The Pianist”), Nicolas Cage (“Adaptation”), Michael Caine (“The Quiet American”), Daniel Day-Lewis (“Gangs of New York”) and Jack Nicholson (“About Schmidt”).
Will win: Nicholson’s support seems to be fading, so this turns out be a battle royale between Day-Lewis and Brody.
Should win: Day-Lewis or Brody.
Should have been nominated: They got this category right!
The contenders for Best Actress are Salma Hayek (“Frida”), Nicole Kidman (“The Hours”), Diane Lane (“Unfaithful”), Julianne Moore (“Far from Heaven”) and Renee Zellweger (“Chicago”).
Will win: The tightest race of the night. Kidman and Zellweger seem to be the frontrunners, but Moore could rally for the win. Also, don’t discount Lane’s darkhorse potential.
Should win: Lane or Moore.
Should have been nominated: Isabelle Huppert (“The Piano Teacher”).
The contenders for Best Supporting Actor are Chris Cooper (“Adaptation”), Ed Harris (“The Hours”), Paul Newman (“Road to Perdition”), John C. Reilly (“Chicago”) and Christopher Walken (“Catch Me If You Can”).
Will win: Outside shot for Reilly to ride crest of “Chicago” sweep, but it’s a showdown between the Chrises.
Should win: Cooper.
Should have been nominated: Dennis Quaid (“Far from Heaven”)
The contenders for Best Supporting Actress are Kathy Bates (“About Schmidt”), Queen Latifah (“Chicago”), Julianne Moore (“The Hours”), Meryl Streep (“Adaptation”) and Catherine Zeta-Jones (“Chicago”).
Will win: Zeta-Jones just barely beats out Streep.
Should win: Zeta-Jones or Streep.
Should have been nominated: Edie Falco (“Sunshine State”).
The contenders for Best Adapted Screenplay are Bill Condon (“Chicago”), David Hare (“The Hours”), Ronald Harwood (“The Pianist”), Peter Hedges and Chris Weitz (“About a Boy”) and Charlie Kaufman (“Adaptation”).
Will win: Hare.
Should win: Kaufman (who wrote the year’s best screenplay in any category).
Should have been nominated: Alexander Payne’s screenplay for “About Schmidt.”
The contenders for Best Original Screenplay are Pedro Almodovar (“Talk to Her”), Jay Cocks, Steve Zaillian, Ken Lonergan (“Gangs of New York”), Alfonso Cuaron and Carlos Cuaron (“Y Tu Mama Tambien”), Todd Haynes (“Far from Heaven”) and Nia Vardalos (“My Big Fat Greek Wedding”).
Will win: Almodovar beats Haynes by a nose.
Should win: The Cuaron’s.
Should have been nominated: PT Anderson’s screenplay for “Punch-Drunk Love.”
So the final predictions are as follows:
Picture: “Chicago.”
Director: Rob Marshall (“Chicago”).
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (“Gangs of New York”).
Actress: Julianne Moore (“Far from Heaven”).
Supporting Actor: Chris Cooper (“Adaptation”).
Supporting Actress: Catherine Zeta-Jones (“Chicago”).
Adapted Screenplay: David Hare (“The Hours”).
Original Screenplay: Pedro Almodovar (“Talk to Her”).
The smart money this year is on “Chicago,” “Chicago,” “Chicago.” But remember, kids, the only sure thing about the Oscars is that “no one knows anything.” Have fun guessing and never quit crossing your fingers for the underdogs.