Most people learned the difference between renewable and non-renewable resources by the time they were in the fourth grade, yet we are still heavily dependent upon fossil fuels. There is no disagreement among authorities that we are using fossil fuels at a rate that far outpaces the geological processes that create them.
Most people agree a day will come when we will be forced to either change our way of life or convert to a more renewable source of energy. Because of current technological limitations, there is no fuel or combination of fuels that even come close to the ratio of the cost of production to energy gained of fossil fuels. Current data is insufficient for determining when an oil shortage will become a global problem, but most sources agree our generation will be the one that will feel the sting.
“The Long Emergency,” a recent article in Rolling Stone, was adapted from James Howard Kunstler’s book of the same title. The article states, “It has been very hard for Americans-lost in dark raptures of nonstop infotainment, recreational shopping and compulsive motoring-to make sense of the gathering forces that will fundamentally alter the terms of everyday life in our technological society.”
The article goes on to frame the issues of our unfortunate dependency upon fossil fuels, and the author draws a vivid picture of how life in America and on Earth must change as the days of cheap oil dissipate.
Contrary to popular sentiment, we do not have to run out of oil to find ourselves in the middle of an economic nightmare; we simply have to reach the global oil-production peak. Basically, the global oil-production peak is the moment when half of the world’s oil will be gone because of our exploitation and commodification of petroleum. Until we reach this point, our production will continue to increase each year. After this point, oil will become scarcer, more costly and difficult to locate and obtain.
This rise in opportunity cost will filter down to consumers and even non-users. No one in an industrialized society will be able to avoid the far-reaching economic impacts. Imagine all of the luxuries in our lives that result from the availability of cheap oil.
Most of the electricity we use is produced by burning fossil fuels. According to ElectricityForum.com, a publisher of information to the North American electric power industry, about 70 percent of the power in the United States is generated by burning coal, natural gas and petroleum. Fossil fuels drive our highway and rail systems which move most of the freight in America. Without cheap ways to quickly transport goods, consumer product prices will increase.
Currently, there is no technology poised to step in and replace fossil fuels. The current generation of hydrogen fuel cells are bulky systems that can not be easily adapted to our automobiles. Even when these systems can be adapted, they have a limited range. Assuming the scale and range problems could be solved, hydrogen, an extremely volatile fuel, can cause many storage and transportation challenges.
Additionally, hydrogen is derived from either natural gas or biomass. These processes are expensive and have not shown that they can be scaled up to an economic model similar to that of the oil refinement industry.
As reported in the Winter 2005 issue of “Mississippi Landmarks,” MSU researchers are working on processes for producing and using BioOil, a product that looks similar to crude oil. BioOil is produced by the rapid pyrolysis of biomass (usually wood) that can be used for the production of chemicals and fuels. While the prospects of this fuel are exciting, it is similar to fuel cells because the technology is not advanced enough to be scaled up to replace petroleum.
If we reached the global oil production peak tomorrow, which is a possibility according to Kunstler, neither biomass nor fuel cell technology are ready to be applied to the automotive, airline, railway or energy production industries. Moreover, no amount of money could be thrown into the research to change this reality.
Due to insufficient data, public disinterest and lack of adequate replacement technologies, it seems unlikely anyone will be able to prevent the drastic impact of the global oil-production peak on our lives. However, the impacts of this are not necessarily negative. Our habits will have to change, but our ability to adapt to new situations and environments is a defining characteristic of humanity.
What is unfortunate about moving from an oil-driven economy to a renewable resource economy is not the loss of the conveniences we enjoy; it’s the fact that we can not discipline ourselves to make the switch to a smarter way of life until we exhaust most of our fossil fuels.