Mississippi State football is looking at dire circumstances a quarter into the season as they are in danger of missing a bowl game with just a 2-2 record.
It would be the first time since 2009 that MSU missed a bowl game, which was also head coach Dan Mullen’s first season. If they want to continue that streak and get to the six win mark, there are three key games that stick out.
If MSU is going to make a bowl game they will have to win all the games they are supposed to, which is Kentucky and Samford, and get one or two upsets.
The South Alabama loss is what hurt MSU this year, and they will need to win two out of Auburn, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Arkansas, BYU and Alabama. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which is a computer calculation used to predict games, MSU is the underdog in all of these games except Arkansas, and honestly, they should be the underdog. But to put in perspective the accuracy of FPI, last season it was correct 78 percent of the time predicting games that only included Division I FBS teams.
With that in mind, what games are MSU’s best shot to win?
BYU is the only non-SEC foe on that list and has a 1-3 record on the season, but once fans look deeper they see all the issues MSU will have against BYU. The first issue is the game is at BYU in Provo, Utah, which has an altitude of 4551 feet. To put that in perspective, Starkville’s altitude is 335 feet, which means MSU will not be used to playing in that thin of air and will have to adjust accordingly.
The second problem is that while BYU is 1-3, they have proven themselves to be a solid team on the field. All three of their losses were by three or less and were to a 3-0 West Virginia team, a 2-2 UCLA team and a 4-0 Utah squad. It will be hard game for MSU to win and the most likely of the three that they lose.
As far as the two likeliest games for MSU to win, those are Auburn and Arkansas. MSU is favored against Arkansas, which was off at first glance, but after taking a deeper look, I saw Arkansas has only played well in one game against FBS opponents this season, that being a double overtime win over TCU, but even then, they almost lost by giving up 21 points in the fourth quarter.
They also have a one point win over Louisiana Tech and a blowout loss to Texas A&M. Once you factor MSU’s win against Arkansas for four straight years and that the game is at home for MSU, things begin to look up. While this will probably be close, I expect this to be win for MSU as Arkansas has a tendency to drop off in November, a month they are 5-7 in under Brett Bielema.
The Auburn game always seems to be the biggest game of every season, and it will be once again this year. MSU has a much better shot of upsetting Auburn than they do Ole Miss, Texas A&M, BYU or Alabama. That also means the game is a must win if MSU is going to make a bowl game. Coming into the season I would have said this was an MSU win without any second thought, but Auburn is better than expected and MSU is worse.
Auburn has one of the best defenses in the conference, giving up just 18.8 points a game, which is low considering they have played No. 5 Clemson, No. 9 Texas A&M and LSU, who they beat.
However, the reason this game is winnable is because Auburn struggles heavily against FBS teams on offense, scoring just an average of 14 points a game against FBS opponents. Also MSU will get the game at home on Bulldog Bash weekend, which means a big crowd. Overall, this looks like a win for MSU but will probably be the closest of the three games.
Of the three games looked at, I think MSU has a good chance at winning the two they need to hit bowl eligibility, assuming they beat Kentucky and Samford. Right now, I would predict them losing to BYU and then winning against Auburn and Arkansas. However, it is college football and anything could happen, all I know for sure is that MSU has a tough road to bowl eligibility.
