After watching the most prolific ball-handler in Mississippi State history for four years, it’s only natural that Bulldog fans want to know what Anthony Dixon will do next.
The NFL Draft begins Thursday night, and that is where Dixon will learn his future.
However, MSU’s all-time leading rusher probably won’t be drafted on Thursday. The NFL and ESPN set up a new format where the first round is televised Thursday night, rounds two and three take place Saturday night and rounds four through seven are Sunday. Most projections have Dixon going anywhere from the second to the fourth round.
It would be difficult, and foolish, to predict when Dixon is drafted. Instead, let’s take a look at where he might be drafted. Dixon is a big, bruising runner, so we first need to look for a team that has a need for one of those. Also, chances are low that Dixon will be drafted to be an immediate starter. The perfect team may be one that has an established starter at running back, but needs more depth.
We’ll go through every NFL team, starting with the three teams I consider the most likely and then go through the rest of the NFL alphabetically and break down the odds of each drafting Dixon.
1. Houston Texans – This is the place I have felt all along is the most likely destination for Dixon, and it is also one of the best fits. The Texans have an established starter in Steve Slaton, a small and quick runner. However, Slaton has had troubles scoring in the goal-line offense and with fumbling. The Texans have made it public for a long time now their desire for a big, powerful running back who can score touchdowns and not fumble. Houston does not need a new starter at running back, so they will likely try to find someone like Dixon in the middle rounds. A Texans scout told me in November they liked Dixon and said he was in Starkville specifically to look at running backs.
2. San Diego Chargers – This situation is almost identical to Houston now that the Chargers have parted ways with LaDanian Tomlinson. They have Darren Sproles, who they believe is a talented running back, but he is tiny, and most do not think he is able to carry the full load as a starting running back. The Chargers flew Dixon to San Diego for a visit and have expressed their interest in finding another running back.
3. Washington Redskins – We know one important thing about new head coach Mike Shanahan: He loves to collect running backs. The ‘Skins have their QB in Donovan McNabb, and will almost certainly draft an offensive tackle and a wide receiver with their first two picks, but they need to address the running back position in the draft. They have three guys in the mix now with Larry Johnson, Willie Parker and Clinton Portis, but all three are old, brittle and on the wrong side of their prime. The Redskins also brought in Ryan Torain, who is young and played for Shanahan in Denver. Dixon is the kind of back Shanahan likes, and he would not have to start right away with so many veterans already in the clubhouse.
Team-By-Team
Arizona Cardinals – The Cards are set with perennial backup Tim Hightower, who has done well for them, and Beanie Wells, who Arizona drafted in the first round last year.
Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons have an established starter in Michael Turner, but have expressed the need for depth behind him. Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood, also a MSU alum, have been injury-prone and not as effective as Atlanta hoped.
Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens are set at running back with Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain.
Buffalo Bills – Running back is almost the only area of the team the Bills are not looking to improve. They have Pro Bowler Marshawn Lynch and backup Fred Jackson, who are both very capable starters. Buffalo would be a surprise.
Carolina Panthers – The Panthers have perhaps the best one-two punch in the league at running back with DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart. They are unlikely to draft another back.
Chicago Bears – In 2008 the Bears thought they had found their starter in rookie Matt Forte, but in 2009, Forte fell well short of the organization’s high expectations. Their offensive line may be to blame, but the Bears could use another guy in the backfield.
Cincinnati Bengals – The fighting Ochocincos were overjoyed when the previously troubled Cedric Benson emerged as a star last season, but behind him they have very little depth. If the Bengals draft a running back, it won’t be at the front end of the draft, but they could be looking for some one on day two or three.
Cleveland Browns – The Browns released Jamal Lewis at the end of the season, and in the final games of their 2009 campaign Jerome Harrison got the starting nod and absolutely shone. He’s a smaller guy, but Cleveland also has James Davis, who missed most of the season due to injury after they drafted him out of Clemson last year. The Browns are a run-first team, though, so they may still take a look at a back in the mid to late rounds.
Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys have a three-headed monster in Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. Unless one of them is traded, which they apparently are considering, they won’t be looking for another back.
Denver Broncos – The Broncos have more running backs than they know what to do with already, after signing Correll Buckhalter last offseason and drafting Knowshon Moreno in the first round last year.
Detroit Lions – The Lions are another team who brought Dixon in for a visit, and they certainly need a running back. They have not been overly impressed with the recently drafted Kevin Smith or his backup Maurice Morris. The Lions have a ton of needs, and running back is one of them.
Green Bay Packers – Most of the Packers’ troubles running the ball have been due to the porous offensive line, but Ryan Grant has really only had half of a good season in Green Bay. The Pack could easily be in the market to give Grant some competition, but not with their first or second round picks.
Indianapolis Colts – The Colts already had Joseph Addai, and then they drafted Donald Brown in the first round of last year’s draft. Dixon would really have to fall for the Colts to consider him.
Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jags are set with their starter as Maurice Jones-Drew after releasing Fred Taylor before last season, and believe they have a solid No. 2 with Rashad Jennings, whom they drafted in 2009. They could be interested in another running back, but they surely aren’t actively seeking one.
Kansas City Chiefs – Jamaal Charles went wild in the second half of last season once the Chiefs gave him the ball, and the team has full faith he can continue to be successful. But, again, Charles is a smaller, flashy running back. Kolby Smith is a backup and is a bigger guy, but the organization probably does not envision much for Smith. The Chiefs are a very real possibility for Dixon.
Miami Dolphins – The team who made the Wildcat the hip new thing in the NFL has two solid players in the backfield with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, but neither are reliable. Brown has been injured almost as many years as he’s been healthy, and Williams, while he seems to have cleared up his drug-checkered past, is nearing retirement. The Fins don’t need an immediate starter, but they could easily draft a “project” to be featured in a couple of years.
Minnesota Vikings – Yes, the Vikes already have Adrian Peterson, but they lost their reliable backup in Chester Taylor. They don’t need to spend a high pick on a backup, but they are likely to draft another back this weekend.
New England Patriots – Save maybe the Broncos, no one has a more muddled backfield than the Pats, who have Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Sammy Morris. They are not sold on any of them as their starter, and if they thought Dixon could step in they would likely be willing to draft him.
New Orleans Saints – A few months ago I’d have said there’s no chance, but now it seems more likely. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush are both injury prone, and New Orleans let backup Mike Bell leave for Philadelphia. They could use some depth and have taken Mississippi products before with great success.
New York Giants – Brandon Jacobs is the No. 1 guy in New York, but he has been very injury prone, and had a down year last season. However, the Giants also have Ahmad Bradshaw and Danny Ware, both of whom they think very highly of. It would not be a total shock if they take a running back, but don’t expect it.
New York Jets -The Jets already have LaDanian Tomlinson, Leon Washington and Shonn Greene, whom they drafted last year. Running back is not high on their list of needs.
Oakland Raiders – The black hole is more than set with Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush in the backfield. All they care about is finding a decent quarterback.
Philadelphia Eagles – After they released Brian Westbrook this offseason, the Eagles clearly have a need for a running back. They drafted LeSean McCoy in the first round last year, and they think he can step in as the starter, but he is very much like Westbrook in that he is a smaller, quicker back. They signed Mike Bell away from the Saints, but the Eagles are likely still in the market for another running back.
Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers found their man last season in Rashard Mendenhall, who is a very similar runner to Dixon. They also have Mewelde Moore, who has done exceedingly well when filling in for injured starters.
San Francisco 49ers – Dixon reportedly visited the Niners, as well, but they already have two backs who are incredibly similar to Dixon in Frank Gore and Glen Coffee, whom they drafted in 2009. They want someone who can return kicks, and that isn’t Dixon.
Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks are another team with a ton of needs, and running back is near the top of the list. They have not gotten the production they hoped for out of starter Julius Jones, and will likely try to find a new starter this weekend.
St. Louis Rams – The Rams have a very established starter in Pro Bowler Steven Jackson, but they have no solid No. 2, and Jackson has been injury prone. Also, don’t forget that Dixon’s old coach, Sylvester Croom, is the running backs coach in St. Louis. This is a team that bears watching this weekend.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bucs already have a crowded backfield with Cadillac Williams, Earnest Graham and Derrick Ward.
Tennessee Titans – Nashville is one of the more likely destinations for Dixon. They have the electric Chris Johnson inked in as the starter, and LenDale White has been the oversized backup. However, the Titans have never been happy with White and may be looking to replace him. Tennessee is another team who flew Dixon in for a visit.
I spoke with Dixon at the spring game, and I asked him what team had shown him the most interest. This was his answer:
“Last time I talked to the Chargers, they were telling me, the offensive coordinator and the running back coach mainly, they were telling me how they really wanted me and they were gonna do their best in the draft to get me,” Dixon said. “I left there excited wanting to be a Charger. I told the coach I’m willing to do whatever, just come pick me up.”