It is Homecoming week in Starkville, and for Mississippi State, the timing could not be more important. On Saturday, the Bulldogs host the Texas Longhorns in what could become a defining game for Head Coach Jeff Lebby’s second season. Texas enters at 5–2 overall and 2–1 in the SEC, while Mississippi State sits at 4–3 and is still searching for its first conference win under Lebby.
The matchup is a rare one, but the stakes are clear. Texas entered it’s second year in the SEC with championship expectations, but opened the year a little rough. It fell out of the AP Top 25 by getting beat by a rocky Florida team but rebounded with a rivalry win over No. 5 Oklahoma.
Since then, the Longhorns have started to show bigger signs of weakness. They barely survived Kentucky in overtime last weekend, winning by only three points. Texas has not looked like the same confident team that began the season in September.
Much of that inconsistency has centered on quarterback Arch Manning, who has struggled to settle in. The former five-star recruit has shown flashes of his talent, but Manning has also looked uncertain under pressure, often forcing throws and missing reads against the tougher defenses he has faced in conference play.
Mississippi State, meanwhile, continues to show potential that has not yet translated into wins. The Bulldogs pushed both Florida and Tennessee for long stretches before falling short late in the game. Quarterback Blake Shapen looked off rhythm against Florida, with the game-sealing interception, missing open receivers and struggling to find tempo in the passing game. Even so, he remains Mississippi State’s best option under center.
His experience, decision-making, and leadership give the Bulldogs their best chance to win, especially as the offense continues to get healthier around him. Star running back Fluff Bothwell is expected to return, adding balance and explosiveness to an offense that benefits from a great running game.
Where Mississippi State has made its mark is on defense. The Bulldogs lead the SEC in turnovers forced, a testament to a unit that flies to the football and capitalizes on mistakes. Linebacker play has been steady, the secondary has improved its communication and the front seven continues to create pressure without having to overcommit. Against a young quarterback like Manning, those tendencies could be the equalizer. If State can win the turnover battle, it will have a real chance to control the flow of the game.
Texas still brings a talented roster with size and speed across the board. The Longhorns’ defensive front will test Mississippi State’s offensive line early and often, and Lebby’s offense will need to find a rhythm through quick passes and sustained drives. On the other side, the Bulldogs’ defense must continue to swarm and take advantage of any miscues. If they can keep Manning contained and force him into hurried throws, the crowd inside Davis Wade Stadium could become a major factor.
On paper, Texas has the deeper roster, but it has not looked invincible. Mississippi State has shown progress on both sides of the ball, and with a healthier lineup and the best turnover defense in the conference, this could be the game that finally breaks through.
My Score Prediction: Mississippi State 23, Texas 20
For Mississippi State, this game represents more than just a homecoming showcase. It is a chance to prove that the flashes against Florida and Tennessee were the start of something real. If the defense continues to create takeaways and Shapen finds just enough consistency to lead scoring drives, the Bulldogs will have every opportunity to make a statement. Win or lose, this game could mark the turning point in Jeff Lebby’s first season in Starkville.
