Mississippi State University has now doubled its win total under head coach Jeff Lebby halfway through his second season. The Bulldogs sit 4-2 heading into a pivotal SEC matchup against Florida this Saturday, and while optimism is growing, skepticism has not exactly left the building. After last year’s struggles, fans are both hopeful and cautious, caught between excitement over the team’s offensive explosion and frustration over recurring mistakes.

It is natural for fans to feel impatient after seeing promising things, but before rushing to conclusions about where this program stands, it is worth taking a step back and evaluating some of the narratives that have surfaced around this Mississippi State team.

“Jeff Lebby’s play calling can’t win big games.”

Verdict: OVERREACTION (for now)

This is one of the easiest reactions to make, especially when a play call doesn’t work in a high-pressure moment. Jeff Lebby’s offensive system thrives on pace, vertical shots, and constant pressure, but that kind of offense can look chaotic when execution slips. Critics often point to tempo as a weakness, but when it works, it overwhelms defenses.

Through six games, Mississippi State is averaging just under 40 points per contest. That is a massive improvement from last season’s 25.8 points per game, which ranked 85th nationally. The difference is not just statistical, it is cultural. This offense has an identity now, something that was missing under previous regimes.

Winning big games requires more than just good play calling; it demands rhythm, situational awareness, and the ability to finish drives. Those traits take time to develop. There will be growing pains, but Lebby has shown an ability to adapt. Until Mississippi State consistently falls short against ranked opponents while playing clean football, this one feels premature.

“Blake Shapen costs us games. Kamario Taylor should be the starting quarterback.”

Verdict: OVERREACTION

This has become one of the more common fan talking points, but it is not grounded in the full picture. Blake Shapen has made mistakes, but he has also been one of the driving forces behind Mississippi State’s offensive resurgence. The senior transfer has thrown for over 1,200 yards, completed nearly 66% of his passes, and has been decisive in pushing the ball downfield.

What often gets overlooked is how comfortable Shapen has become in Lebby’s system. His timing and chemistry with receivers like Brenen Thompson and Anthony Evans III have opened up the offense. Shapen’s poise in the pocket, especially in tempo situations, has been a difference-maker.

Kamario Taylor may be talented, but inserting him now would risk disrupting an offense that is finally clicking. Quarterback changes midseason rarely solve inconsistency. If Shapen limits turnovers and continues spreading the field, there is no reason to make a switch.

“Mississippi State’s offense is one of the best in the country.”

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

It sounds bold, but it is not far from the truth. Mississippi State’s offense has transformed into a legitimate threat under Jeff Lebby. The Bulldogs currently rank among the top scoring offenses in the SEC, averaging nearly 480 yards per game. That total includes over 280 yards through the air and a balanced rushing attack that keeps defenses honest.

The difference lies in efficiency. Mississippi State has scored on 95% of its red zone trips and leads the SEC in plays of 20 yards or more. The receivers have stepped up in a way that fans have not seen in years. Brenen Thompson has provided a spark, while others like Anthony Evans III and Jordan Mosley have turned into reliable options on third down.

For the first time in a long time, Mississippi State can win games with its offense, not just survive with it. Calling this one of the better attacks in the nation is not an overreaction, it is a reflection of how much this team has grown in one year.

“The offensive line isn’t SEC caliber.”

Verdict: SLIGHT OVERREACTION

The frustration here is understandable. Mississippi State’s offensive line has been inconsistent, allowing pressure in key moments and struggling to establish dominance in the run game. The Bulldogs are averaging just under four yards per carry in conference play, which is respectable but not elite.

Still, labeling the line as “not SEC caliber” feels rash. The unit has been banged up, rotated frequently, and faced some of the most physical fronts in the league. Despite that, they have protected Shapen well enough to allow one of the SEC’s top passing offenses to flourish. Lebby’s tempo-based scheme also puts linemen under unique stress. Playing fast means blocking more snaps per drive and handling frequent defensive rotations.

Improvement is needed, but this group has shown resilience. The next few games, particularly against Florida’s defensive front, will reveal whether they can take the next step from functional to formidable.

“Mississippi State doesn’t have enough depth to survive the SEC grind.”

Verdict: SLIGHT OVERREACTION

Depth is a fair concern, especially in a league built on attrition. Mississippi State’s roster is not yet as deep as the conference elite, but it is better equipped than people think. Lebby’s transfer portal additions have provided immediate help, and the rotation on both sides of the ball has held up through six games.

Injuries will test that depth, particularly on the defensive line, but the coaching staff has done a better job managing reps and spreading playing time. The Bulldogs have been able to stay competitive late in games, which speaks to their conditioning and preparation. Depth remains a question mark, not a weakness.

Mississippi State enters Gainesville with more belief than it has had in years. The Bulldogs are scoring points, developing young talent, and finally establishing an identity under Jeff Lebby. For all the noise and hot takes surrounding the program, the reality is that this team is improving faster than most expected.

There are flaws, but the progress is visible. Mississippi State is no longer playing from behind as a program. The Bulldogs are learning how to win again, and this weekend’s game against Florida will offer another chance to prove it.

The overreactions will always come, but the truth is simple: Mississippi State is heading in the right direction.