American politics run on numbers. DC politicos thrive on budgets, polls and statistics. Here’s a statistic: During the past 100 years the sitting president’s party has lost seats in the United States Senate 80 percent of the time, and this midterm cycle looks to continue that trend. Of the 36 total races, there are nine seats controlled by Democrats that Republicans have a realistic chance to win. The Grand Old Party only needs to net six seats to gain control of the Senate. It is the Republicans’ midterm to lose.
Unfortunately for the Republican Party, the maxim “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory” is an-all-too realistic possibility. In order to gain a Senate majority, the GOP must steer clear of bonehead mistakes that have been made in the not-so-distant past. Gaffes made by Representatives Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock in the 2012 election are excellent examples of some on the (far) right’s ability to remove themselves from contention with professionally idiotic comments.
This sheds light on the necessity for the GOP to nominate electable candidates who can win general elections. While adherence to principle and ideology is certainly important, it is also important to win the race. Passion about convictions and philosophy does conservatives no good if a candidate gets beat by 30 points in a general election.
Identifying and nominating these electable candidates are vital to the GOP’s success. Only when we have a majority in both houses of Congress, which ensures committee chairmanships, will we see an opportunity to get the nation back on track.
The numbers are in the GOP’s favor and so are the issues of the election. Many Senate Democrats seek to distance themselves from the Obama Administration and specifically from its implementation of Obamacare. This is an issue Republicans must leverage to wrestle control of the Senate away from Democrats.
A recent special election in Florida’s 13th District served as a testing ground for the Republican and Democratic midterm tactics. Both national parties spent unusually high amounts of money in this race to test the viability of their overarching strategy. Republican David Jolly beat Democrat Alex Sink in a narrow victory focusing on one issue: Obamacare.
Republicans have had luck in the past focusing on a single issue as a campaign strategy. In 2010 they took back the House by gaining 63 seats. While they didn’t take control, they did pick up six seats in the Senate. This landslide victory for Republicans came about by running against Obamacare and reminding voters of Democrats who voted for it.
2014 is not 2010. Obamacare is a powerful issue, but this cycle isn’t going to crown any winners running on a single issue. Offering an alternative to the plan is a first step in a winning strategy. Simply repealing the law isn’t sufficient. “Repeal and replace” is the newest slogan coming from the right. Now is the time to be specific with what that replacement looks like. But Obamacare is only one issue marring this administration and those in Congress who have supported it.
When considered alongside our flawed foreign policy and painfully slow economic recovery, focusing solely on Obamacare would miss an opportunity to develop a strategy that incorporates a myriad of other issues that are important to Americans. The winds are blowing in the GOP’s favor, and barring any self-inflicted wounds, this is the Republicans’ Senate to lose.
