Super Bowl LII will take place this Sunday in Minneapolis, Minnesota, at U.S. Bank Stadium in a matchup of the AFC champion New England Patriots (13-3) and the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles (13-3).
The matchup on everyone’s minds is the quarterbacks. With the greatest QB in NFL history, the Patriots hold a clear advantage against Nick Foles, who is a backup, because Carson Wentz suffered a season-ending injury. However, take a closer look at the overall makeup of both rosters, and the Eagles appear to have the overall better team.
The consensus among many sports sites ranking the players in this year’s Super Bowl, such as ESPN, CBS Sports, and Pro Football Focus, is that Brady and Rob Gronkowski will be the two best players on the field Sunday.
However, after those players, the Eagles have the majority of the best remaining players in the Super Bowl. The Eagles also had more pro bowl and All-Pro players this season than the Patriots, which gives further credence to the notion the Eagles have a more talented roster.
Despite the Eagles overall talent edge, the Patriots are currently a four-point favorite to win the game, and many analysts seem to be picking them to win Sunday’s game. The perceived advantage at quarterback and head coach for the Patriots is the driving force behind New England being the favorite in the Super Bowl. I certainly acknowledge the Patriots have those advantages, but anyone thinking the Eagles are just going to bow to Brady, Belichick and the Patriots’ five rings is crazy.
The Eagles have a very good chance of winning this game, and it starts with their defense, which is led by former Mississippi State University Bulldog, Fletcher Cox. Cox is the Eagles’ best player, and one of the best in the league at his position. He is the driving force behind what was one of the league’s most effective pass-rushing defenses in 2017. It is easy to be fooled by the sack numbers, as the Eagles finished tied for 15th with only 38. However, The Eagles recorded 271 quarterback pressures on the year, which led the NFL.
The key to the Eagles pass-rush is strength in numbers. They had seven defensive lineman play over 400 snaps on the year, and all of them are good. They do a great job of rotating their guys in and out to keep them fresh.
Not only will the Eagles hold the advantage on the defensive line, but they have a better offensive line as well.
Philly has three offensive linemen in center Jason Kelce, guard Brandon Brooks and tackle Lane Johnson, who are all top five in the NFL at their position. The Eagles hold the advantage in the interior on both sides of the ball, and this is a huge advantage.
The Eagles also have the better overall defense. Their linebackers Mychal Kendricks and Nigel Bradham were one of the best duos in the league in 2017 and both cover well. This is critical when playing the Patriots because one of their primary strategies is to use their running backs in the passing game by matching them up on linebackers. This goal will be more difficult to accomplish against the Eagles than other teams.
The Eagles are also loaded in the secondary, thanks to the stellar play of cornerbacks Patrick Robinson in the slot and Ronald Darby on the outside. Malcolm Jenkins is also one of the best safeties in the game and one of the leaders on this defense, anchoring the defense from the backend. Clearly, the Eagles are strong defensively at all three levels.
Despite all those advantages, I believe the New England Patriots will win Super Bowl LII.
The primary reason is number 12. I simply do not believe a team quarterbacked by Tom Brady is going to lose to a team quarterbacked by Nick Foles. A lot of the advantages the Eagles have in this game, the Jaguars also had over the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. However, that game came down to Tom Brady making plays in the fourth quarter when it counted most, and Blake Bortles’ inability to do the same.
I see Sunday’s game playing out very similarly. I expect the Eagles to get off to a fast start, putting lots of pressure on Brady, and utilize their run-pass option game to keep the Pats defense off balance, and move the ball against them.
However, Bill Belichick has proved to be the best coach in the NFL at making halftime and in-game adjustments. The Patriots will make the necessary adjustments on defense to slow down the Eagles offense in the second half, and adjustments on offense to neutralize the Eagles pass-rush and give Brady the time he needs to figure things out.
Ultimately, in the fourth quarter, I do not believe Foles will make the necessary throws to move the Eagles offense against the Patriots when it counts most. Meanwhile, Tom Brady is at his best late in games.
I have the Patriots winning a close 24-21 to take their sixth Super Bowl in the Brady/Belichick era, and establishing themselves as the unquestioned best dynasty in NFL history.
While the Eagles have the better roster, Brady cannot be matched
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