According to President Donald Trump, the investigation he currently faces is “A TOTAL WITCH HUNT!!!” This statement was tweeted just hours after the unannounced raid on Michael Cohen’s Manhattan office.
Michael Cohen, Trump’s personal lawyer, previously stated he paid Stephanie Clifford, an adult-film star better known as Stormy Daniels, a sum of $130,000. This sum, Clifford alleges, was in return for her silence during the 2016 presidential election cycle. However, the raid that occurred April 9 was primarily focused on Trump’s relationship with Karen McDougal, an ex-Playboy model, who alleges she had a nearly year-long affair with Trump, and who was reportedly paid $150,000 by American Media Inc., which has ties to Trump.
As the dust settles over New York, I think we will see one of a few things happening. It is in my well-researched but unprofessional opinion, either way this goes down, Cohen will face jail time.
Let me lay out the three most likely scenarios: 1. The FBI finds what they are looking for. Cohen is indicted on illegal campaign activities or a similar charge, and is either prosecuted or pardoned by Trump (which would be quite the show).
2. The FBI does not find exactly what they were looking for in reference to McDougal, but they do find other incriminating evidence of illegal activities by Cohen.
3. The FBI does not just find information regarding payments made to McDougal or Daniels, but they discover other potentially destructive information regarding illegal campaign activities, including communications with foreign nationals.
There is a narrative which has circulated right-wing news sources the past 24 hours regarding attorney-client privilege, which has been referenced by Trump. Alan Dershowitz, a liberal pundit and former Harvard Law professor, stated on Fox News on April 9 it was a “dangerous day today for lawyer-client relations.”
In conservative circles, there has been a steady stream of criticism regarding the handling of the raid and the potentially private files on Trump confiscated by the FBI.
To my understanding, it is assumed a special team of agents will comb through the files in order to avoid any breaches of attorney-client privilege. However, it appears the FBI, at least so far, has acted completely within their legal rights.
Let me break down the timeline of events leading up to the raid on Cohen’s office. At some point in the past few weeks, the U.S. Attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) received a referral from Special Counsel Robert Mueller regarding payments made to McDougal and Clifford.
In light of the referral, the U.S. Attorney’s office for the SDNY evaluated whatever evidence they had on Cohen, and they decided to approve the search warrant for his Manhattan office. But let us stop here and look at some details. The people who are running around yelling about the “Deep State” and “liberal conspiracies” are missing some critical context.
Geoffrey Berman, the interim U.S. Attorney for the SDNY, was personally interviewed by Trump to replace Preet Bharara, the former top prosecutor for the SDNY. Berman, a Republican, donated $4,500 to the Trump campaign, and recused himself from the investigation regarding Cohen.
This means Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein personally approved the raid on Cohen’s office. Rosenstein, as well as Mueller, have been life-long republicans. To me, it seems a little odd for Deep State conspiracy would rely so heavily on the actions of Republicans, but maybe this is just me reading into it.
I cannot stress how important the events are which have taken place over the past 48 hours. Even if nothing comes of it and everything goes back to normal within a week, an unexpected search in a lawyer’s office is exceedingly rare.
Generally speaking, federal prosecutors prefer a grand jury subpoena to a search warrant, in cases where they believe evidence may be hidden. It is hard to ignore the most important fact here, which is Cohen is Trump’s long-time personal lawyer, who probably knows more about potential illegal activities concerning the Trump campaign than anyone else on the planet.
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Odds are, Trump’s investigation is not a witch hunt
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