If a tree falls in the woods and nobody is there to hear it, does it make a sound? Well, of course it does. The point is no one knows, notices or cares, unless you happened to have your tree house in that fallen oak. The same idea applies to the NFL. If you play fantasy football, and the Bills, Browns, Rams and Raiders are all on their bye week, does it make a difference? Well, of course it doesn’t. Other than Steven Jackson, the only byes that matter this week are the Jets and Vikings, and really the Jets don’t even have much to offer your fantasy team. So, with more start-worthy players available than in typical weeks, let’s first take a look at some guys I think will exceed expectations on Sunday.
Ryan Grant RB/GB – This could be welcome-back-to-fantasy-relevance day for Grant against Tampa Bay this weekend. The Bucs are 28th in the NFL in terms of rush yards allowed, and I’m betting the Packers want to instill some confidence in their troubled offensive-line by running the ball down Tampa’s throat.
Ryan Moats RB/HOU – I still think Steve Slaton will be the starter, but there is a strong chance Texans coach Gary Kubiak could run a 50/50 split with these two guys after Moats’ monster outing against the Bills. Houston will run the ball much more than often for three reasons: Indy has a stingy pass defense, but is weak against the run’ they want to keep Peyton Manning off the field and the Texans lost star receiving tight end Owen Daniels for the season.
Matt Hasselbeck QB/SEA – People continue to ignore the Seahawks, but this is an offense capable of putting up big numbers against cushy matchups. Enter the Detroit Lions, who have allowed 17 passing touchdowns – second most in the league – and have recorded only five interceptions. With options like Nate Burleson, T.J. Houshamandzadeh and John Carlson, Hasselbeck could be a top-5 fantasy QB this week.
Alex Smith QB/SF – Who’s the only pass defense allowing more touchdowns than Detroit? The Tennessee Titans with 19. They’ve also allowed a league-high 2,094 pass yards. The 49ers are a run-first team, but stopping the run is one of the few things this Titans team is remotely good at. If Mike Singletary allows it, the Niners will throw the ball with ease.
Michael Crabtree WR/SF – See: Smith, Alex. In just two games Crabtree has already become, at worst, the No. 2 receiving target behind tight end Vernon Davis. Smith seems to be looking for Crabtree almost every time he throws it, even if he has to force a bad pass. There is no one on the Titans defense who has the ability to cover Crabtree; and, as previously stated, if the 49ers are allowed to open it up the results could be glorious.
Kevin Walter WR/HOU – Someone has to replace the massive production of Owen Daniels, and it won’t be his replacement Joel Dreesen or mega stud Andre Johnson, who will see a slight uptick in coverage rolling his way. Walter is the No. 2 receiver in a pass happy offense, and he will benefit from the attention Johnson receives in a big way.
They (whoever “they” are) say everything tends to equal out over time. Well, with the aforementioned Bills, Browns, Rams and Raiders on bye, someone has to play horribly to make everything balance out, right? Indeed. Here are some guys who may not play as horribly as Derek Anderson or Jamarcus Russell, but will not meet the typical expectations they are associated with.
Michael Turner RB/ATL – Don’t be fooled by his big game against New Orleans Monday night. The burner is not back just yet. They face the Redskins, who, I know, are pretty miserable, but Washington actually has a top-5 rush defense. The ‘Skins have only allowed two rushing touchdowns all season, so don’t expect a huge day from Turner.
Ray Rice RB/BAL – The Ravens face the Bengals – a team critics are slow to believe in – who have only allowed one rushing touchdown all season and are second only to the Steelers in terms of rushing yards allowed. Rice has been very productive as of late, but if you have other options, you may want to use them this week.
Ben Roethlisberger QB/PIT – The Broncos are another team critics don’t seem to believe in, but after Sunday Big Ben will surely believe. Denver has only given up four passing touchdowns. Only Tom Brady has thrown more than one touchdown against the Broncos, and no one has passed for more than 300 yards against this overachieving secondary.
Matt Schaub QB/HOU – I just like saying Corn on the Schaub. But, seriously, Schaub is likely in for a disappointing day against an Indy secondary which has only allowed three passing touchdowns and has only given up two 300 yard days. As Indy is weak against the run and Daniels is out for Houston, Schaub is due for a down day.
Marques Colston WR/NO – It’s tough to trust Saints’ receivers because they spread the ball around so much to so many different people. Now this week, the Saints square off against a Carolina team that has only two touchdowns to wide receivers and has held quarterbacks to a league-low 1,200 yards passing.
Here are a few more players I think will have better-than-average games: Derrick Mason, Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Matthew Stafford and Matt Cassel.
And here are some you might want to avoid: Tony Romo, Laurence Maroney, Knowshon Moreno and Miles Austin.