Due to Mississippi State’s recent swoon, having lost four of its last five games, and Auburn’s 77-64 win at Ole Miss Wednesday, Saturday’s game against Auburn has become the biggest game left on the schedule. Why? Because the two teams are fighting for the all-important second seed in the West for the SEC Tournament.
That seed is vital for two reasons: Most obviously and importantly, the top two seeds from each division receive a bye to the quarterfinals of the tournament. That is key for any team’s chances of winning the tournament and earning the SEC’s automatic bid to the Big Dance. Quite frankly, either team would likely have to win the tournament to earn a bid. Secondly, West No. 2 would gain the benefit of not having to play seemingly unbeatable LSU until the championship game, if at all.
As of today, State and Auburn are tied at 7-6 and Auburn boasts a 91-76 victory over the Bulldogs already. If the Tigers were to win Saturday, they would hold a one-game lead over MSU plus the tiebreaker by virtue of beating them twice. With two games to play, that lead would be virtually insurmountable.
Should State win, however, it would take a one-game lead with two to play, putting the Bulldogs’ destiny squarely in their own control. Even so, State has a tough schedule remaining, with a home game against a good Florida team and a trip to Oxford to face an Ole Miss team that has already beaten the Bulldogs once. Luckily for the Bulldogs, Auburn has a game left against LSU, likely meaning the Dawgs could split its last two games and still earn the bye if they win Saturday.
This time of year usually causes interested parties to tear hair out while trying to figure out who holds the edge in a tiebreaker. If you’re one of those people, do yourself a favor: stop. Essentially, State won’t beat Auburn unless it does so outright.
The first tiebreaker, head-to-head, is a wash at best for MSU. The second, divisional record, is a lost cause for State. Auburn boasts a 5-2 record in the West, while the Bulldogs are an abysmal 3-5 in that category (yes, technically both could finish at 5-5, but that would give State second place straight up).
The scenario gets murky when you consider Ole Miss, who trails MSU and Auburn by a game. UM’s next two games are a home game against Alabama and a road affair with league punching bag Arkansas. If Ole Miss takes care of business in those two, that could make for an interesting date with State on the last day of the season. Sadly, that game won’t be televised.
The good news? State can win out and finish in second outright. The bad? If the Bulldogs continue to play as poorly as they have been, they won’t win another game.