Oscar weekend is one of my favorite weekends of the year. It is a time when we can all come together and celebrate all things film.
One of my favorite parts of the weekend is debating which film will win in each category before finally filling out your own Oscar ballot Sunday afternoon. You gather all your film friends and watch in eager anticipation for each category, hoping your favorite film takes home the coveted little statue.
My mission is to give you my insight into Sunday night, and maybe help you iron out a few predictions.
First, we will start with some of the minor categories. Costume Design should go to “Phantom Thread.” It would stand to reason the film about a fashion designer has the best costumes. The two films that may challenge it are “Beauty in the Beast” and “Victoria & Abdul.”
In the same vein, Makeup and Hairstyling should go to “Darkest Hour.” The work they did in disguising Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill is astounding. The dark-horse pick here is once again “Victoria & Abdul.” It is a beautiful little movie that really has a shot in at these last two categories.
Production Design is a toss-up. It goes to either “Blade Runner 2049” or “The Shape of Water.” I am picking “The Shape of Water” on this one, but like I said, it could go either way.
Let’s jump to the documentaries. I will admit, I have not seen the majority of these, so I can only base these two picks on intuition. As for Documentary (Feature), I am predicting “Icarus.” This is an astounding documentary on the crazy Russian doping scandal. It is on Netflix, and I cannot recommend it enough. However, “Last Men in Aleppo” has a really good chance at winning, purely based on its subject matter. Last year, The Academy picked “The White Helmets” as their documentary shot subject winner, which follows these brave men into Aleppo as they save lives.
As for Documentary (Short Subject), I think “Heroin(e)” will win. This short is on a town in West Virginia, which has become the epicenter of the opioid epidemic. This is the category I am least confident about, but I think “Heroin(e)” is a safe pick.
Foreign Language Film is also hard to choose. All the films were huge among film festivals, but, based on what I have read, “A Fantastic Woman” seems to be the frontrunner here.
Next up are the two Short Film categories. In the Short Film Animated category, there seem to be two clear frontrunners. “Lou” and “Dear Basketball” are the favorites to win. A Pixar short is almost always guaranteed a win (see “Piper” from last year), but I am going to pick “Dear Basketball” for this one.
For the Short Film (Live Action) category, I’m going with the political pick here. “DeKalb Elementary.” The short film is based on a school shooting where no one was hurt. This is credited to the bookkeeper for talking down the potential shooter. The Academy tends to be a little political sometimes, and with all the recent events, “DeKalb Elementary” is a safe bet.
Now for the two sound categories, to clear up any confusion: Sound Editing is the makeup of the actual sounds you hear, Sound Mixing is how you hear each sound in relationship to all the other sounds. It is always a safe bet to pick a war film for these two (see “Hacksaw Ridge” from last year), and it is very rarely split between two films. For both of these, I am picking “Dunkirk.” “Dunkirk” is highly reliant on engaging the audience in its world, and the sound of this movie is a huge part of the experience. If you want a dark horse pick, I think “Blade Runner 2049” has the chance to surprise some people.
Best Film Editing should go to “Baby Driver.” This film is airtight and relies on the editing to deliver its story. “Dunkirk” could be a dark horse for this one, but “Baby Driver” deserves it.
Visual Effects is one of the tightest races for the minor categories, and the one I am the most passionate about this year. If “War for the Planet of the Apes” loses, I will riot in the streets. The film is reliant on its incredible visual effects to tell the last chapter of Ceasar’s story. Again, “Blade Runner 2049” could challenge “War for the Planet of the Apes” for this one; but come on, I swear they used a real orangutan.
Now we move into the major categories, starting with the two music categories. Original Score has two frontrunners in my mind, “Dunkirk” and “The Shape of Water.” They both have equally amazing scores for completely different reasons. “The Shape of Water” score is beautiful and fits the film perfectly, while the “Dunkirk” score is almost a character in and of itself. I am picking “Dunkirk,” but “The Shape of Water” could easily take this one.
“Remember Me” from “Coco” is nearly a lock for Original Song. The only one which could really challenge this is “This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman.” Both great songs, but “Remember Me” is just another step above.
Speaking of  “Coco,” it is going to win Animated Feature Film. No if’s, and’s or but’s about it. Best Animated Feature should not be a separated category from Best Picture, but this is a conversation for another time.
Now it is time for the big eight. Let’s start with the screenplays. For Adapted Screenplay, there is a clear favorite in “Call Me by Your Name,” and I think this is a pretty safe pick. The only other one I see challenging it is “The Disaster Artist.”
Original Screenplay is a bit tougher. I think there are three front-runners: “Get Out,” “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” I am torn so many different ways on this one. On one hand, there is the genius writing in “Get Out,” one of the smartest films I have ever seen. Then there is a challenging love story “The Shape of Water” that navigates it’s subject mater brilliantly. Ultimately, I think “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” is my pick for this one. I think the dialogue in this film pushes it over the edge for me.
Cinematography is one of my favorite categories, but also one of the toughest. There is a lot of stiff competition this year. “Dunkirk” is masterful, “The Shape of Water” is gorgeous, but I think “Blade Runner 2049” is the winner. It is such a beautiful film and relies on the cinematography to bring you into its fantastical world. This, plus the fact cinematographer Roger Deakins has been nominated 14 times, I think this is the film to finally win him a long-deserved Oscar.
Next up are the four acting awards. This is a tight, tight race and could go any which way. In my mind, Best Actress in a Supporting Role goes to Laurie Metcalf from “Lady Bird.” I think her performance really anchors the film and brings a sense of reality the film captures well.
Best Actor as a Supporting Role should go to Sam Rockwell for his performance in “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” One of the best characters of last year, Sam Rockwell plays this role beautifully. Richard Jenkins could also be a dark horse, as could Willem Dafoe, but Rockwell is my favorite to win.
Best Actor in a Leading Role is the easiest of the four acting categories. This one is Gary Oldman’s. His performance as Winston Churchill in “The Darkest Hour” is immaculate, and easily the best part of the movie.
Actress in a Leading Role is the toughest. I have no idea how this one is going to go. Sally Hawkins delivers the best performance of her career in “The Shape of Water.” Saoirse Ronan, who I absolutely adore, is the best part about “Lady Bird.” Frances McDormand is outstanding in “Three Billboards,” and never count out Meryl Streep for her role in “The Post.” The Academy loves their Meryl. I have no idea who should win, so for this one, I’m going to pick who I want to win: Saoirse Ronan. Her performance in “Lady Bird” is my favorite of the year, and I desperately hope she wins.
Directing is also an extremely tough category. I think Guillermo del Toro is the favorite going in, but in my opinion, Best Director should go to Christopher Nolan for “Dunkirk.” He delivers a masterpiece of a film, and the film he delivers is specifically his. No one else could have made this movie, and for this reason, I am sticking with Nolan.
Now it’s time for the big one: Best Picture. In my opinion, there are two favorites: “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” and “The Shape of Water.” Because the voting system is slightly different for Best Picture than the rest of the categories, we could see an upset from films like “Dunkirk” or “Get Out,” but I think “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” takes this year’s Oscar. It is a powerful film which at times can be hard to watch, but a story I think needs to be told. It’s a story about how hate drives us to extremes and the powerfulness of forgiveness.