I first heard of Groundhog Day in kindergarten. Apparently every Feb. 2, a groundhog emerges from his burrow. If he sees his shadow, we get six more weeks of winter. If not, we get an early spring. This was presented to us as fact.
And like all of the ridiculous garbage they fed us in kindergarten, I believed it, just like I believed George Washington really never lied and that the Pilgrims lived in harmony with the Indians.
It was never explained how this phenomenon works – does it apply to the local area? The whole world? Would the Southern Hemisphere get an additional six weeks of summer? Does the cloudy sky cause the Earth’s axis to jolt somehow? Plus, what about the effect of solar eclipses or any of the much simpler natural factors such as trees that could affect the visibility of a shadow?
I’m ashamed of my 6-year-old self for not raising these important questions and putting my teacher in her place.
The idea of Groundhog Day descends from medieval European traditions, specifically those found in Germany. Often the animal was a bear or hedgehog, but the same idea remains: If a hibernating animal awakens to see his shadow, he’ll go back to sleep, and winter will continues. When German settlers migrated to America and became the Pennsylvania Dutch, they kept these traditions.
One could almost argue the idea is vaguely scientific. Sunny late winter days are associated with cold, dry Arctic air, while rainy days tend to signify milder maritime air. Since weather patterns often remain unchanged from day to day, a sunny day on Feb. 2 signifies cold weather will last longer.
At least that’s what one Internet source told me. It sounds pretty contrived, but people from long ago really did think along lines like that. Unfortunately they got the whole correlation-and-causation thing mixed up somewhere along the way, assuming the animal seeing his shadow and returning to sleep was actually the cause of the weather.
Nowadays, there are various groundhogs around the country, which make an appearance of some sort on Feb. 2.
The most famous of these is Punxsutawney Phil of Punxsutawney, Penn. The devious denizens of this town of 6,000 have an elaborate ceremony attended by as many as 40,000 people who have nothing better to do than brave below-freezing temperatures for this absurd charade.
This tradition has been going on in Punxsutawney for 1887. Some of the earliest results have been lost, but of the 113 years on record, Phil has seen his shadow 98 times, meaning he has only foretold an early spring 15 times.
Meteorological records show Punxsutawney Phil’s accuracy rate is actually only 39 percent for the surrounding area. You’d think the most notable groundhog from the most proudly German area of the country would have more credibility. Looks like I’m right on calling those 40,000 people idiots.
Of course, the idea of an “early spring” is entirely impossible. The vernal equinox, occurring on March 20, is the start of spring, regardless of what the weather is doing. So the chance of having six more weeks of winter (well, actually if you count it out, it’s closer to seven) is actually 100 percent.
And when you consider that, Punxsutawney Phil is actually correct 86.7 percent of the time. I guess he’s not so bad after all, but it’s still a really dumb tradition. Why not take the time explaining Groundhog Day to elementary school students and instead teach them about the tilt of the Earth’s axis and how it makes the seasons.
I wasn’t able to find any polls on this, but I’m sure a disappointingly low percentage of Americans are aware of how the axial tilt works, far lower than the percentage who are familiar with the dumbest of all holidays, Groundhog Day.
Let’s all agree right now to do the right thing: Let’s not tell our kids about this stupid tradition. Let’s let it be just an embarrassing abomination that dies with our generation.
Harry Nelson is the opinion editor of The Reflector. He can be contacted at [email protected].