Saturday, Rick Stansbury clinched at least a share of the SEC Western division crown for the fifth time in his career with a 76-63 win over South Carolina in Columbia. According to Mississippi State spokesman Greg Ellis’ Twitter feed, the Bulldogs celebrated with a trip to Krispy Kreme before boarding a plane to fly back to Starkville.
However, with less than two weeks left until Selection Sunday, the Bulldogs still have work to do before they can get some more hot doughnuts and celebrate an NCAA Tournament berth.
Less than a month ago, the Bulldogs went on a stretch where they lost four out of five SEC games, with the lone win coming at home against LSU, the SEC West bottom-feeder. Since losing a road game to Florida on Feb. 6, the Bulldogs have won five of their last six games and have worked their way into most projected tournament fields.
The only loss in those games came against Kentucky, the No. 3 team in the nation, in overtime at The Hump.
Mississippi State stands at 21-8 overall and 9-5 in SEC play. According to realtimeRPI.com, MSU now has an RPI of 57. Also, the Bulldogs have clinched the West’s No. 1 seed in next week’s SEC Tournament in Nashville, meaning they will play either the No. 4 seed from the East (Florida, if the tournament started today), or the No. 5 seed from the West (Alabama), after a first round bye.
Unfortunately for Stansbury’s club, being the best team in the West does not carry as much weight this year as it has in the past. The East is by far the better division, with four of its’ six teams (Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Florida) likely to make it to the tournament. The West will be lucky to have one team receive an at-large bid to the tournament and many bracket experts believe MSU will be that one team.
Looking at the Bulldogs’ tournament resume, it is easy to see the good, the bad and the ugly from what MSU has done this season.
The good: A regular season sweep of Ole Miss, and a non-conference win over Old Dominion (#42 RPI).
The bad: The Bulldogs had chances to win games over Richmond and Western Kentucky, but free-throw shooting cost MSU in both of those games, where wins would have made State’s non-conference record stand out more. Also, the Bulldogs do not have a win over any of the four best teams in the East, with one more chance coming Saturday when they take on Tennessee in the regular season finale.
The ugly: The season opening, 14-point loss to Rider. This loss continues to standout on the Bulldogs’ tournament resume.
MSU has two chances left to bolster their chances before the SEC Tournament: Wednesday night at Auburn, and Saturday against Tennessee at home.
If the Bulldogs get upset by Auburn, then the Tennessee game becomes a must win. If MSU beats Auburn, they could still probably make the field of 65 without beating the nationally-ranked Volunteers.
Also, while winning the SEC tournament would mean an automatic bid to the big dance, making the finals or semi-finals would also increase their chances. One thing that would hurt the Bulldogs’ tournament chances is an unlikely team (like Georgia in 2008, and MSU in 2009) winning the SEC tournament and claiming the league’s automatic bid.
After three consecutive wins, most bracket projections have MSU on the right side of the bubble.
ESPN.com bracketologist Joe Lunardi has MSU as 13-seed playing in San Jose Cali., against BYU. In Lunardi’s projections, the Bulldogs are the lowest-seeded team, along with Siena, receiving an at-large berth.
Bracketography.com has MSU as an 11-seed, and they have the Bulldogs playing in Jacksonville, Fla., against Maryland.
On the other hand, CBSSports.com contributor Jerry Palm has the Dawgs as one of his last four teams out.
While the Bulldogs will not know their NCAA Tournament fate until Selection Sunday, travel plans can be made for Nashville. MSU’s first game in the SEC Tournament will be played at 6:30 p.m. on March 12 at the Sommet Center.
James Carskadon is a sophomore majoring in Communication. He can be contacted at [email protected]