I’ve said before I think I would make a good booth announcer for football because I have a tendency to overreact to and exaggerate things immediately after they happen. I’ll see a backup running back break off a big run, and then I’ll start saying he should be in the NFL. I have the ability to change a four-yard screen pass into a game-changing play, and I’ll sometimes say things so obvious John Madden would laugh at me. ESPN should hire me now. I can be a knee-jerk reaction kind of guy sometimes, but luckily I typically realize it quickly. That’s probably why I’m a writer, because I actually have to think about things before I type it.
To be successful in fantasy football, you have to have a writer’s mentality. Knee-jerk reactions on the imaginary gridiron will kill both your team and your chances of winning your league. There are tons of players this week you really need to think about. Calvin Johnson, for example, is hurt and may not play. The knee-jerk reaction is to start him if he does play, but if he is so hurt he’s a game time decision, how effective is he going to be? The other situation is when you expect the replacement of said hurt player to match his typical productivity. Another example: if Peyton Manning goes down, do you think Jim Sorgi is going to lead that team to a Super Bowl? Nor do I. So, in a weekend ravaged with byes (the Patriots, Bengals, Bucs, Redskins, Steelers and Chiefs are all off this Sunday), think about who’s in your lineup before you put them there.
We’ll start off with a few players I think will exceed typical expectations this week.
Matthew Hasselbeck QB/SEA – Maybe it’s East Coast bias, but the Seahawks tend to be forgotten out there in Seattle. Hasselbeck and the rest of the offense actually have the potential to be fairly explosive, and lining up against a Cowboys’ secondary in the bottom half of the league stat-wise should help these Hawks fly. I’m expecting the Cowboys to roll up the points, meaning Hasselbeck has to throw a ton while he plays the catch-up game. The last time he faced a porous secondary- the Jaguars- Hasselbeck threw four touchdowns.
David Garrard QB/JAC – Garrard certainly doesn’t get the credit he deserves, but this week should help remedy the situation. He’ll be facing the reeling Titans and their 32nd ranked pass defense. The last time these two teams faced off Garrard threw for 323 yards and three touchdowns, and the Titans have only gotten worse. Beautiful.
Jeremy Maclin WR/PHI – The Eagles are lining up against a Giants’ defense which has been very susceptible to the pass and will likely roll their coverage in DeSean Jackson’s direction, leaving Maclin in one-on-one coverage way too often. The Bucs did their best to shut down D-Jax three weeks ago, and Maclin went off for 142 yards and two touchdowns. He’s a boom-or-bust kind of guy, but I’m thinking Maclin has a big day.
Lee Evans WR/BUF – He’s fallen off the map in the Siberia that is Buffalo, but Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over for the injured Trent Edwards last week may be the best thing that has happened to Evans all year. Fitzpatrick targeted him nine times last Sunday, and this week; he faces a Texans’ defense that isn’t exactly spectacular. As the Texans blow up the scoreboard, the Bills will have to throw all day to keep up- great news for Evans.
Matt Forte RB/CHI – I try not to put guys in the “love” section who are too obvious, but anyone who owns Forte knows he’s not obvious anymore. This week, he faces the Browns and their 30th ranked rush defense. If he doesn’t go off this week, though I think he will, it might be time to give up on him. I’m giving him this chance to show why he was a pre-season top ten running back.
Shonn Greene RB/NYJ– If you picked him up, like I told you to, this is the week to use him. The Jets got embarrassed by the Wildcat the last time they faced the Dolphins, and head coach Rex Ryan doesn’t want that happening again. Ryan is a smart guy and knows the best defense is a good offense. He will run the ball nonstop to eat up the clock and keep Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams off the field. The Jets have rushed for over 300 yards in two consecutive weeks, have a struggling rookie quarterback, are a run-first team anyway and now have a reason to run more – good news for anyone in that backfield.
Now, we’ll look at some guys who I don’t believe will meet expectations. This is where you want to avoid the knee-jerk reactions.
Matt Schaub QB/HOU – I’m not saying Corn on the Schaub, who I’ve been promoting since the pre-season, will have a bad week by normal standards. But, by his standards as the NFL leader in yards and touchdowns thrown, he may not be as spectacular. Reason No. 1: the Bills actually have a top 10 pass defense, and that’s mostly because of reason No. 2; The Bills have the league’s worst-ranked rush defense, so nobody throws on them. Steve Slaton will go off early, meaning the Texans won’t have to throw nearly as much as they typically do. Also, keep in mind Andre Johnson has a bruised lung and may not play.
Joe Flacco QB/BAL – Yeah, I know, I’ve been wacko for Flacco for months now. But I’m not this week. You could say I’m low on Joe. Denver has a surprisingly stout pass defense and no one except for Tom Brady has had a decent day on them. In ESPN.com leagues, the Broncos have only allowed opposing quarterbacks an average of 6.5 fantasy points per game. If you have other options this week, use them.
LeSean McCoy RB/PHI – McCoy is exhibit A in the case for not freaking out over backups. Brian Westbrook (concussion) probably won’t play, but you don’t want a rookie making his first start against a Giants defense featuring Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck. McCoy played the majority of the game last week when Westy went down, but only gained 37 yards on 14 carries.
Ryan Grant RB/GB – He’s been somewhat disappointing as fantasy running back this season, and nothing will change that perception on Sunday. He faces a Viking defense which has only allowed two rushing touchdowns all year. The Vikings are also without Pro-Bowl cornerback Antoine Winfield, so the Pack will pass even more than usual to take advantage of favorable matchups in the secondary.
Michael Crabtree WR/SF – Here’s another knee-jerk guy. Do I think he should be owned in all leagues? Certainly. But I don’t think he should be started right away, particularly not against a formidable Colts secondary who has only given up two touchdowns through the air. The 49ers are a run-first team, anyway, and the Colts’ defensive line has been incredibly friendly to opposing running backs. Frank Gore will go off, but I don’t expect big things from Crabtree this week.
Roddy White WR/ATL – People are finally starting to recognize the New Orleans’ defense is legit with guys like Darren Sharper and Charles Grant. The Saints have allowed four passing touchdowns this season and have recorded 13 interceptions. They have been facing White twice a year since he became a Falcon. The entire Atlanta offense will probably have a rough day, and White could be affected the worst.
Here are a few more players I think will play better than expected Sunday: Steve Slaton, Frank Gore, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eddie Royal and Matthew Stafford/Daunte Culpepper, depending on who draws the start.
And a few more I think will disappoint: Tony Romo, Joseph Addai, Marshawn Lynch, Knowshon Moreno, Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson.