This summer, the whole country experienced record-level heat not only during the day but also at night, affecting especially Mississippi’s crop production, which is one of the biggest factors in the state’s economy. John Michael Riley, an expert in Agricultural Economics for Mississippi State, pointed out that the weather this year was quite strange.
“Toward the end of last semester, we were talking about flooding in the Delta. Four to six weeks later, we were moving the discussion towards drought.”     When asked what this rollercoaster type weather meant for Mississippi’s crop production, Dr. Erick J. Larson, an associate research/extension professor specializing in corn physiology and production, said corn will be the crop taking the biggest hit.
“There have been tough growing conditions for corn, with it relying on moisture that came mostly in late June and early July,” he said. He also said the crops in the northeast part of the state will suffer the most.
“Corn will experience below average yields, some well below average since June was extremely dry – forcing the northeast to be late planted, maturing later, when the weather was hotter,” Larson said.
Some like Michael Brown, who is an associate professor of meteorology and climatology here at State, have said the intense heat and bizarre rain patterns are not affecting crop production as negatively as expected.
“The really bad heat was for a short period of time. As a whole, Mississippi hasn’t slipped into a drought, and those crops that survived the flood should be average or about five to 10 percent below average, which shouldn’t be a big impact to the state’s economy. Though there are obviously pockets where there were droughts that negatively impacted crops, there are some areas that have flourished.”
In this light, both Riley and Larson said things are looking up for cotton and soybeans, which are the state’s other two leading crops – as far as acreage is concerned. Larson said this season’s higher cotton prices should cause farmers to go back to planting more cotton.
“This increase in cotton interest will probably come back, although maybe not as big as pre-2007.”
Riley likewise acknowledges this increase in cotton production, saying it has made a comeback in terms of acres this season.
“The bulk of (Mississippi’s) crop is in good condition. Corn, on the other hand, is not. As of Sunday, Aug. 14, 65 percent of cotton crops are rated high, 62 percent of soybeans are rated high, but only 46 percent of corn crops are rated high.”
From an economic standpoint, the crops suffering in this way will probably have substantial effects on some growers.
Larson said, “Though statewide numbers and estimates from official reporting agencies may look around average, some growers will have very poor yields. If you don’t produce well, you don’t get ahead. If your crop has yields that are 75 percent lower than average, it is very easy to get into debt.”
Though it is hard to tell how the Mississippi economy will be affected as a whole because crops are generally produced by individuals, it is still safe to say that those who were able to produce this season will definitely benefit from the summer’s sporadic weather.
“Big picture-wise, we’re seeing prices for commodities incrementally going up, which could very well lead to higher prices across the board for the Agriculture sector of Mississippi, which is probably a good thing. Unfortunately, producers with a bad crop will not benefit, and it is still too early to tell, but this could also lead to higher prices for consumers.”
Brown is quick to point toward the bright light at the end of the tunnel.
“The good thing is that we’re not expecting tropical systems in the gulf, so there should be no loss of crops to wind or rain damage,” Brown said. So it looks like Mississippi farmers can take a breath of relief in knowing that the worst is behind them and that they should be in for a smooth harvest season.