Well, cinemaniacs, it’s that time of year again: that maddening couple of months when Hollywood bestows award after award on film that may or may not deserve such praise (it’s all in the eye of the beholder).
Most critics around the country have already named their top films and performances of 2003, and organizations such as the Screen Actors Guild, The Producers Guild and the Hollywood Foreign Press have already named their nominees as well.
Yet all of these laurels pale in prestige and media hoopla in comparison to the little golden men doled out on a yearly basis by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. I’m talking about the Oscars, ladies and germs, and we’ve less than a week to make our final forecasts before the bomb officially drops Jan. 27.
As any film geek does at this time of Oscar season, I take it upon myself to enter the already overcrowded fray of gamblers, fools and fortune-tellers fumbling to get inside the minds of Academy voters and offer up to you my own predictions for next week’s nominations.
First, the best supporting actor race: The SAG nominations threw a curve ball with the inclusion of Chris Cooper (“Seabiscuit”); yet, they reinforced the Oscar chances of hopefuls Tim Robbins (“Mystic River”); Alec Baldwin (“The Cooler”); Ken Watanabe (“The Last Samurai”); and past winner Benicio Del Toro (“21 Grams”).
Don’t discount Paul Bettany, whose great performance in “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World” seems to have gone unnoticed on most year-end wrap-ups, nor should you write off Albert Finney (“Big Fish”) or Peter Sarsgaard (the little-seen indie “Shattered Glass”).
Best supporting actress is the most crowded category of the year, with Renee Zellweger (“Cold Mountain”) emerging as early leader of the pack. Marcia Gay Harden’s powerful turn in “Mystic River” isn’t getting much ink these days, so it looks like the remaining slots will be filled by actresses in independent films. Expect names like Maria Bello (“The Cooler”), Scarlett Johannson (“Lost in Translation”), Holly Hunter (“Thirteen”), Hope Davis (“American Splendor”), and Patricia Clarkson (“Pieces of April”). And don’t lay bets against surprise SAG nominee Keisha Castle-Hughes, the prepubescent heroine of the critically adored “Whale Rider.”
From the toughest competition to predict, we head to the easiest-the race for best actor. Bill Murray (“Lost in Translation”) and Sean Penn (“Mystic River”) will duke it out all the way to the awards telecast. They’ll likely be joined by Ben Kingsley (“House of Sand and Fog”) and previously un-nominated Johnny Depp (“Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl”). The fifth slot is up for grabs. Its strongest candidates are Russell Crowe (“Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World”), Peter Dinklage (“The Station Agent”), and Jude Law (“Cold Mountain”). But a crazy hunch is telling me to keep an eye on William H. Macy, who may just sneak in under the wire as the sad-sack protagonist of “The Cooler.”
A weak year for female leads leaves the best actress race with only a few obvious heavy hitters angling for a place in the top five. Diane Keaton (“Something’s Gotta Give”) and Naomi Watts (“21 Grams”) are safe bets for recognition. Charlize Theron is the favorite to take the award home for her fierce turn as a real-life serial killer in “Monster.” Cate Blanchett was hailed for her strong performances in “The Missing” and “Veronica Guerin,” but neither film was well received by critics or the public. Evan Rachel Wood (“Thirteen”) has a good shot at becoming the youngest performer in Academy history to be up for the leading actress Oscar, but she’ll have to beat out It-girl of the moment Scarlett Johannson (“Girl with a Pearl Earring”) and past winners Nicole Kidman (“Cold Mountain”) and Jennifer Connelly (“House of Sand and Fog”).
For best director, my predictions go hand in hand with the nominations from the Directors Guild. Clint Eastwood (“Mystic River”) and Peter Jackson (“Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”) are locks. Academy favorite Peter Weir seems destined for his fourth directorial nod for “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World.” The fourth slot is set aside for critical darling Sofia Coppola (“Lost in Translation”). Gary Ross (“Seabiscuit”) has a tenuous grasp on the fifth slot but could be ousted by “Cold Mountain’s” director Anthony Minghella. Jim Sheridan is the dark horse candidate for “In America.” He could score a nod only if his film shows up in the Best Picture race.
Now, the granddaddy of ’em all: Best Picture. This year’s race is harder to predict than usual due to a lack of iron-clad front- runners. “Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” is the only film ensured of a nomination. Other probable candidates include “Mystic River,” “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World,” and “Seabiscuit.”
“Lost in Translation” may be too independent to score a Picture nod, and the chances of “Cold Mountain” seem to be dissipating with each passing day. That leaves the door open for a few surprises: the family drama “In America,” the whimsical fable “Big Fish,” or the animated charmer “Finding Nemo.”
For a barometer of how the Oscars may shape up, catch the Golden Globes Sunday night at 7 on NBC. But bear this in mind: The real key to predicting the Oscars lies in famed awards prognosticator William Goldman’s warning that “no one knows anything.” Expect glaring omissions and choices that defy all logic and probability. It wouldn’t be the Oscar ballot without a shocker or two on the roster, so let’s all just hold our breaths and keep guessing until the nominations are announced live on television Tuesday morning at 7:30.