Two months ago presidential candidate Al Sharpton responded to fellow candidate Howard Dean’s newfound popularity by warning people not to get fixated with “the flavor of the month.” No one has taken the good reverend’s advice.
Dean has emerged as the front-runner in a crowded field of senators (former and present), members of the House and one fire-breathing political activist. He has ignited the liberal base of the Democratic Party like no one since Dukakis in 1988.
The problem is that his political strategy will only work in the Democratic primary. Even in the Democratic Primary, it is hard for me to believe that he can overwhelmingly carry the South and the Midwest.
I don’t see his message resonating with the moderate Mississippi Yellow Dog Democrat or the Ohio steelworker who is active in his local chapter of the AFL-CIO. His strength in the primaries will be in states like California and smaller states in the Northeast.
His strategy is to paint the President as the man who “bombed Baghdad” and “bombed our economy.” He better stick with the latter argument, seeing as most Americans still see the war in Iraq as just and want to see a lasting peace in the country. His “woes of our economy” message is one that resonates with people across the country.
How do the candidates trailing Dean stack up?
Sharpton is viewed as a race polarizer who brings to mind memories of the Tawana Brawley hoax. The establishment has given him no respect, except to thank him for his humorous one-liners at the debates.
Former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun has garnered little support other than an endorsement by the National Organization for Women. She is seen as too liberal and has not shown enough interest in foreign affairs.
Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich is best described as a crossbreed between William Jennings Bryan, one of the fathers of populism, and former presidential candidate George McGovern.
Kucinich has positioned himself as a liberal populist who defends the working class and scorns the corporate slave masters, while condemning NAFTA and embracing the United Nations. His labor ideas resonate with the working class, but his other ideas seem to be out of the mainstream.
Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman has positioned himself as the voice of reason in a pool of lukewarm to cold candidates by defending America and its allies. He is against canceling the Bush tax cuts. He has argued that the middle-class tax cuts should remain but the corporate cuts should go.
Lieberman has problems exciting the liberal base and the anti-Bush crowd. He is viewed in some Democratic circles as Republican disguised as a Democrat.
Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry seems to be one of two favorites of a divided establishment. He claims that he can match the President on national defense since he himself is a decorated Vietnam veteran. He thinks that Bush has mishandled the war.
Kerry is a favorite of some conservative Blue Dog Democrats like Tennessee congressman Harold Ford. Kerry’s biggest problem is Dean, who seems to have all the momentum and the liberal base behind him.
Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt, the second establishment candidate, is holding strong while polling low. He is beloved by labor but is seen as old news since his last run for president in 1998.
North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is a charming southerner who some thought was the next John F. Kennedy, but he does not have the have political muscle or capital of a Kennedy to mount a successful campaign.
If Edwards were to get the nomination, the pro tort reform entities would come out in full force to defeat him, their worst enemy, a trial lawyer. I predict that he is the likely choice as a vice-presidential running mate for any one of the front-runners except Dean.
Sen. Bob Graham, a popular former governor of Florida, has not been able to gain any traction in a crowded field.
It remains to be seen who could beat Bush. Some Republicans are hoping that Dean’s popularity continues. Many of them prefer a Bush-Dean matchup because they think the race will be a Reagan defeats Mondale style landslide.
Dean’s popularity may be high now, but the nomination is hardly his. Many candidates will begin to drop out of the race after the first primaries, and the momentum is likely to shift.
Edward Sanders is a sophomore political science major. He can be reached at [email protected].