Best Picture: “The Aviator,” “Finding Neverland,” “Million Dollar Baby,” “Ray,” “Sideways.”
“Sideways” is the early awards season favorite that peaked too early. “Neverland” is the pedigreed Oscar bait that everyone liked but no one really loved. “Ray” is the somewhat sloppy biopic that coasted in on the strength of its subject matter and lead performance. For a long time, “Aviator” was the film to beat, but then came “Baby,” the pesky last-minute underdog with sharper teeth than anyone could have predicted. And now all bets are off.
Should win: “Sideways.”
Will win: Everyone seems to be rallying behind “Baby,” but I wouldn’t count out “Aviator” just yet.
Longshot: A split between the top contenders could lead to a “Sideways” surprise.
Should have been nominated: “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.”
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Annette Bening (“Being Julia”), Catalina Sandino Moreno (“Maria Full of Grace”), Imelda Staunton (“Vera Drake”), Hilary Swank (“Million Dollar Baby”), Kate Winslet (“Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”).
Winslet will win her Oscar some later year, and Moreno can be happy she was even nominated for such a little-seen film. This one’s between Staunton, Bening (the sentimental choice), and Swank (the “Baby” steamroller continues).
Should win: Staunton, for what was probably last year’s single greatest onscreen performance.
Will win: Swank looks poised to pick up Oscar #2, but Staunton’s in prime position for an upset.
Should have been nominated: Julie Delpy (“Before Sunset”).
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Don Cheadle (“Hotel Rwanda”), Johnny Depp (“Finding Neverland”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Aviator”), Clint Eastwood (“Million Dollar Baby”), Jamie Foxx (“Ray”).
The most foregone race of the evening.
Should win: Cheadle is the best of this bunch.
Will win: Eastwood, who shouldn’t even have been nominated in such a competitive year, has an outside shot. So does DiCaprio. But come on. Foxx is the anointed one this year and has been since long before “Ray” was even released. He’s unstoppable.
Should have been nominated: Liam Neeson “Kinsey.”
Really really should have been nominated: Paul Giamatti (“Sideways”), one of the most criminal snubs in Oscar history.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Cate Blanchett (“The Aviator”), Laura Linney (“Kinsey”), Virginia Madsen (“Sideways”), Sophie Okonedo (“Hotel Rwanda”), Natalie Portman (“Closer”).
Should win: They’re all deserving.
Will win: In my mind, it’s a close four-way race, with Blanchett on top, followed by Madsen, with Portman and Okonedo duking it out for dark-horse status.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Alan Alda (“The Aviator”), Thomas Haden Church (“Sideways”), Jamie Foxx (“Collateral”), Morgan Freeman (“Million Dollar Baby”), Clive Owen (“Closer”).
Should win: Owen.
Will win: Unless cooler heads prevail and the Church or Owen camps kick into high gear, Freeman wins for simply being Freeman.
Should NOT have been nominated: I understand that everyone loves Foxx this year, but his nomination in this category is ridiculous to the point of sickening. A.) His performance was a lead, and B.) it wasn’t Oscar-worthy.
Should have been nominated: Lots of worthy also-rans, from Peter Sarsgaard (“Kinsey”) to Rodrigo De la Serna (“The Motorcycle Diaries”) to Mark Wahlberg (“I Heart Huckabees”), but the big omission was David Carradine for “Kill Bill Volume Two.”