Mississippi State currently sits at 22-14 (6-9) and ninth place overall in the SEC standings. The top eight teams make it to the lucrative SEC Tournament in Hoover, Ala. Historically, all eight teams that make the SEC Tournament earn an NCAA Tournament bid. Occasionally, MSU in 2006 for example, SEC teams who finish ninth but have strong out-of-conference schedules have earned a berth in the NCAA Tournament, but, rest assured, Cohen and company do not want to take that chance. Mississippi State is fifth in the Western Division, while Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss are all tied for first place with an 8-7 conference record, and Auburn sits in fourth with a 7-8 conference record.
The Bulldogs took game three against Arkansas 5-3 to avoid getting swept after a tough loss Friday and a poor performance at the plate Saturday. The Sunday game was crucial for the Bulldogs as it kept them two games out of the lead in the Western Division and one game from the coveted eighth spot in the SEC. Whereas every SEC series is difficult and MSU is at the disadvantage of not having Kentucky on its schedule this season, the tougher part of MSU’s SEC schedule is out of the way.
That may sound ludicrous with No. 2-ranked South Carolina coming to town, but at least the series is at home where MSU has performed well save an 18-0 fluke dismantling. MSU has played the RPI No. 2, 4, 11, 13, and 17-ranked ranked teams on its SEC schedule thus far and has No. 3 in South Carolina remaining, but then the competition drops somewhat to RPI No. 39, 64, 31 and 30 ranked opponents in Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU with all but the Ole Miss series taking place in Starkville.
The reasons behind the Diamond Dawg’s improvement this season is in its improved fielding percentage from .959 last season to .975 so far this season and its improved ERA, which is down to 4.01 this season from 6.87 last season. Mississippi State’s current batting average is down from last season, but it has been back and forth because of MSU’s inconsistency at the plate. The Bulldogs are currently on pace to strand more runners on base than they did last season. At times this team has hit well in clutch situations – even strived – but lately it has been the opposite. MSU must find a way to cash in on big innings when the opportunity arises, or on the flipside, chip away at leads when down. All that being said, at this point last season, MSU was 5-10 which is not that much different from this season, but the schedule was set up differently and MSU had not been nearly as competitive in its losses.
MSU has a chance in the next couple of weeks to help itself “steal” some quality wins for its NCAA Tournament resume. The Bulldogs play Ole Miss in a non-conference game on Tuesday in Pearl, Miss. and play Memphis who has an RPI ranked No. 72, but should be rising after some recent wins. South Alabama, another non-conference opponent, is No. 92 in RPI rankings which is not spectacular.
In conference play, MSU needs to, at the very least avoid, getting swept at home by South Carolina and win take the series against Tennessee and LSU. A sweep in either one of those series would provide MSU with some leeway, but the Alabama and Ole Miss series are tossups. The Alabama series is going to have a double header on Saturday which provides for some interesting circumstances.
The Elias Sports Bureau found that doubleheaders are swept 48.6 percent of the time while most other sports statisticians claim college baseball doubleheaders are swept the majority of the time. The only doubleheader in SEC play this season resulted in a sweep. I believe the Alabama doubleheader will be important in deciding whether MSU makes the SEC Tournament or not, and I predict a Saturday sweep whether it’s MSU winning two or Alabama winning two.
The Ole Miss series should hold implications, as well, as the Rebels have not exactly cashed in on the favorable part of their SEC schedule. They still host MSU and South Carolina, and must travel to Arkansas, Florida and Auburn.
In conclusion, at this juncture, anything can happen in the SEC West. Every team but LSU is arguably in good position to earn the title, and even LSU could make a run with Tennessee and Kentucky left on the schedule. MSU must continue to field and pitch well and start swinging the bat with consistency. Cohen and Thompson must be flawless in personnel decisions – especially on the mound –  the young Bulldogs must continue to provide a spark to the team, and the veteran part of the roster must come through in clutch situations.