Last week Charlie Cook, of the Cook Political Report newsletter, spoke at MSU through the Collins Speakers Series. He examined the upcoming 2006 and 2008 elections.
He spoke of several potentials candidates for U.S. president, including Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, former Sen. John Edwards, Sen. John McCain and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
On the Republican side, Cook placed candidates in the “Secular,” “Sacred” and “Middle” categories. “Secular” Republicans were led by John McCain and Newt Gingrich. These are your economically conservative libertarians who seek to reduce the scope of government while largely leaving the religious issues to others. The “Sacred” Republicans tend to be religious conservatives who usually find more comfort with the traditionalist Christian Coalition than the libertarian Cato Institute. The “Middle” includes candidates like Sen.George Allen of Virginia, a Reagan-esque character and son of the late Redskins coach of the same name. They tend to be defenders of the free-market principles and the religious/conservative bend.
Humorously, Cook put the Democrats into two distinct categories: “Hillary Clinton” and “Others.” He said someone will come along as the anti-Hillary, disintegrating her campaign. Alternatives to Clinton would be Sen. John Kerry, the popular former governor of Virginia Mark Warner, egomaniacal Sen. Joe Biden and a plethora of others.
Cook also said the last senator to win the presidency was John Kennedy in a close win over Richard Nixon. His assertion was that senators don’t get elected because Americans prefer governors and supreme allied commanders (Eisenhower).
If either side wants to win, I recommend one of these stealth tickets:
Democratic Ticket A
Gov. Mark Warner and Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh: it would be too right for the Democrats to pick two popular red-state Democrats from Virginia and Indiana. Unlike Al Gore, they would probably win their home states, and Republicans couldn’t afford to lose both states. The loss of Virginia (13 electoral votes), Indiana (11) and Ohio (20) would deal a fatal blow to the Republican electoral base in a close election.
Republican Ticket A
Sen. John McCain and (insert conservative Christian Republican): McCain, an anathema to many Republican activists, has a mountain to climb in winning the nomination. That mountain is getting a lot less steeper.
McCain has used his celebrity status to support candidates from George Wallace Jr. in Alabama to Ken Blackwell in Ohio to Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania. These people might be more inclined to support him.
McCain will need a conservative Christian Republican to keep the Republican base intact. If he can keep the base intact and preserve his appeal with Independents, he would be unbeatable. The truth is that many believe McCain is the only sure win against Clinton.
Democratic Ticket B
John Edwards and Sen.Barack Obama: Edwards, an all but declared candidate, will make his “Two America’s” pitch again. Voters don’t like repeats these days, but his charisma plus Obama’s popularity could prove to be a smart move. They are a youthful but inexperienced ticket that could inspire voters. JFK only served seven years in the Senate.
Republican Ticket B
George Allen and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice: many have placed their hopes in Allen as the next Ronald Regan. He’s a free-market advocate and a social conservative. Rice, a great diplomat in the mold of John Quincy Adams, is a celebrity in her own right. Her ability to siphon off a small margin of women and black voters and Allen’s appeal with the conservative faithful would make a great ticket.
The Ralph Nader of 2008 will be Republican Tom Tancredo. He will run as an Independent, and the Republicans will lose the White House. This is more likely if the Republican is perceived to be soft on immigration, Tancredo’s key issue. 2008 elections should be interesting.