This week’s game against No. 13 Vanderbilt is as close as I’ll come to calling a game a must-win. Our beloved Bulldogs have dug themselves quite the hole and if they don’t turn things around soon (read: this week) it will serve as a grave for State’s slim hopes of a bowl game.
A 1-4 team with zero wins over Football Bowl Subdivision opponents to be thinking about a bowl game may seem absurd. Maybe it is. To be fair, I did call the chances “slim.”
In the name of looking at the bright side, our remaining schedule does include the other three SEC schools that are currently winless in the SEC: Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas. Two of those games are at home. We also have a homecoming game against Middle Tennessee State.
State’s next four games comprise the softest part of its schedule. A win Saturday gives the Bulldogs great momentum going into this crucial stretch.
Now that I’ve established that this game is important, what makes me think we have a chance of winning? After all, Vanderbilt is 5-0 (3-0) and ranked No. 13 nationally.
While both of those facts are true, Vandy has in no way shown that they are unbeatable. Last week the ‘Dores squeaked by Auburn by virtue of a missed extra point. The week before they used three fourth-quarter Ole Miss turnovers and a missed field goal to beat the Rebels.
Vandy has won its close games with a little bit of luck and solid game management by coach Bobby Johnson. The Commodores don’t beat themselves. They currently lead the nation in turnover margin – an impressive +9 on the season. They are the least-penalized team in the SEC, averaging only 30.4 yards/game in penalties. Vanderbilt leads the SEC in red zone offense, with 18 of their 19 red zone trips resulting in points.
These are all statistics that any coach would be proud of. They show a team that is well disciplined. They show quarterbacks who make good decisions. They show a placekicker that is dead-on within 37 yards.
They do not, however, make any sort of statement of how good a team is. When you look at the stats as a whole it’s incredible that this team is 5-0. The Commodores are last in the SEC in total offense and the only team averaging less than 300 yards/game. They are 10th in total defense, allowing 333 yards/game. Vandy’s stats in these areas are quite similar to MSU’s in these two categories, as State is 10th in the conference in total offense and ninth in total defense.
The main difference between the two teams, really, is that Vandy has had the ball bounce its way this season and the Bulldogs haven’t.
This isn’t an effort to diminish Vanderbilt’s accomplishments. I’d love to be 5-0 right now. I’m merely stating that this is certainly a winnable game for the Bulldogs.
One thing Vanderbilt relies on to win games is interceptions. The Commodores lead the league in that category. However, MSU starting quarterback Tyson Lee has yet to throw an interception. Granted, he’s only attempted 71 passes, but it’s still worth noting. Also, MSU’s starting running back, Anthony Dixon, has yet to fumble this year. If the ‘Dogs don’t turn the ball over, they stand a good chance of winning.
I am encouraged by the way the Bulldogs have played this year in SEC games. I feel like they played to their potential in Baton Rouge. If that’s the team that shows up tomorrow, we’ll win. We may win handily if that happens. On the other hand, if we see the team (I use that term loosely) that we saw at either of the Techs, we’ll be lucky to stay within 20 points of Vandy. That’s the thing with this year’s team: You never know which bunch will show up.
Brandon Wright is the sports editor
of The Reflector. He can be reached at
[email protected].