Last year’s NFL rookie quarterback class was one of the best of all time. Andrew Luck was heralded as the best prospect since John Elway, and Robert Griffin III was not too far behind as perhaps the best dual threat prospect ever.
This year’s top quarterback prospects Geno Smith and Matt Barkley are not even in the same breath as those two guys, but they are the best two prospects at the position for the 2013 NFL draft, and one of them has to be the first quarterback taken.
When I evaluate a quarterback prospect, I look at mainly five things: accuracy, arm strength, physical attributes, pocket awareness and pro-readiness.
As far as accuracy goes, the numbers would suggest Smith is the more accurate player. He completed 71.4 percent of his throws last season, while Barkley only completed 62.6 percent. When I took a closer look at the tape, however, it is clear Smith’s percentage is a product of the system he played in. He threw a lot of short, quick-hitting passes and screens and allowed those talented receivers of his to make plays after the catch.
When evaluating both players’ throwing ability, Barkley appeared to be more accurate. Barkley attempted more NFL-type passes than Smith did and that has to factor in, so I give the accuracy edge to Barkley.
Arm strength is also a key factor. Both players can make all the basic NFL throws pretty fluently. I think Smith has the edge over Barkley, however. He throws a better deep ball and seems to have better velocity on his throws.
Smith is 6’3, 218 pounds, and Barkley is 6’2, 230 pounds. Smith ran a 4.5 in the 40-yard dash and Barkley ran a 4.9. It is clear that Smith physically has the advantage over Barkley and is more athletic.
A lot of things can be factored in when you talk about pro-readiness. The system the player played in, what skill set he has, what habits he has and his football IQ are the main ones I look at.
At West Virginia, Smith played in a spread offense, operating primarily out of the shotgun. Barkley, on the other hand, plated in a more pro-style offense and worked from under center more. Barkley already has pro habits. He calls audibles and makes adjustments at the line of scrimmage and is believed to have a high football IQ. The way he moves his head and eyes and utilizes pump fakes when in the pocket to manipulate defenders and create better passing windows impresses me.
Smith threw a lot of one-read passes at WVU. He does not appear very comfortable when he has to make more than one read and make progressions and read defenses. Also when throwing from the pocket, Smith rarely does anything to try and move defenders. That kind of quarterbacking to me screams interception machine. Barkley has the edge in pro-readiness.
Speed and quickness are nice and all, but the best quarterbacks in the NFL avoidi sacks and extend plays with their awareness in the pocket. Pocket awareness also involves being able to hang in the pocket when under fire and still deliver quality throws.
One of the biggest flaws in Smith’s game is that he folds under pressure. When under pressure, his footwork and mechanics get bad and he is not very accurate. Barkley, on the other hand, looked a lot more comfortable under pressure. I give Barkley the edge in pocket awareness.
So who is the better quarterback? Smith has more upside because of his athleticism, size and arm strength, and because of that I understand why he is the number one rated prospect at the position in most scout’s eyes. Right now, however, Barkley is the better quarterback, and if I were a general manager, I would draft him ahead of Smith.