Few question the strong contrast between Democratic and Republican policies of late. That’s clearly evidenced by the partisan votes on the health care bill. While Republicans currently are the beneficiary of national political division, both parties actually have less than stellar favorability ratings. A recent USA Today/Gallup poll shows each party’s favorability ratings around 40 percent. If neither party is viewed favorably by a majority of Americans, then which stands to lose in the 2010 midterm election?
The primary election map evidences an anti-moderate trend rather than blanketed disdain aimed at Republicans or Democrats. In essence, the country is becoming more politically polarized between classic conservative ideology and the Obama Administration’s progressive philosophy, leaving little sympathy for those who prefer to govern from the center. Polls suggest an imaginary line has been drawn in the sand by political parties and the electorate, forcing candidates to answer the question, “Are you a liberal or a conservative?”
Previously, I have written about Rep. Bart Stupak’s (D-Mich.) role in stalling the health care bill. Stupak and his allies were the last Democrat holdouts to vote for the recently passed health care bill. Stupak, considered a moderate due to his ardent pro-life stance, has been targeted by both sides of the aisle for his vote on health care. Stupak is set to face a primary battle against a liberal, pro-choice candidate. Conservatives had vowed to defeat him in the general election due to his failure to include legislation that would block federally funded abortions in the health care legislation.
With mounting pressure from all sides, last week, Stupak announced he would not seek reelection. He claims the health care debate was a limited factor in his decision. However, I find that highly unlikely. Clearly, his moderate stance made him a target from both conservatives and liberals in Michigan, and I believe it played a considerable role in his retirement decision.
Republicans are also targeting moderates in their party. Popular Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, a moderate who openly supported the 2009 stimulus bill, is 29 points behind conservative, former Speaker of the House Marco Rubio, according to a recent Rasmussen Poll. Less than two years ago, he was the Republican Party standard-bearer.
Now, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is being challenged from his right flank by former Congressman and popular radio personality, J.D. Hayworth. In Utah, conservative Sen. Bob Bennett is facing a serious primary challenge. Conservative advocacy groups have doled out hundreds of thousands of dollars to defeat Bennett in the primary. Bennett has been accused of being a moderate since he proposed Republican solutions to the health care reform bill that incorporated slight Democrat principles.
The trend against moderates is even evident in Mississippi. In 2008, Rep. Gene Taylor, a Blue Dog Democrat, received 75 percent of the vote in his district, which voted 67 percent for McCain. Last week, Taylor’s quarterly fund raising numbers showed he had only raised $40,000. His likely Republican opponent, former marine and State Rep. Steven Palazzo, raised $125,000 in only six weeks. Taylor, a colorful and popular moderate who vocally rebuked his party on the health care bill, is headed towards the reelection battle of his career.
Among seats most likely to flip from Democratic to Republican, the most vulnerable are within the Democrat Blue Dog Coalition. Blue Dogs, who typically represent conservative districts, are being targeted largely because they have a “D” behind their name. Many Blue Dogs became targets when the liberal House leadership forced them to walk the plank on the health care bill.
However, Republicans and Democrats alike are targeting moderates in their own party as well as traditionally popular moderates in conservative districts. With so many moderates in both parties in danger, I wonder if this November, Congress will emerge with representation only from the extremes of each party. Will we see a country purged of centrist?
I am not one who believes Republicans will regain control of either chamber in Congress, but they will make huge strides in Congress this November. Even if Republicans do not regain control of either chamber, they have proven to be solid at whipping their members to tote the party line on crucial issues, empowering them to defeat future Democrat legislation.
Without the support of moderates in either party, it will be interesting to see how the Obama Administration will be forced to react in order to continue to pass their legislative agenda. Perhaps, Obama will be forced to govern from the center and make Congress bipartisan again -but only at the expense of centrists in 2010.
Hunter Lipscomb is a graduate student majoring in business administration. He can be contacted at [email protected].