Larry Templeton is obviously not a poker player.If he were, he wouldn’t even be considering moving the State/LSU football game to the first game of the season in 2007.
According to published reports in The Clarion Ledger and The Associated Press, Templeton met with other league officials last month and is in the process of hammering out a deal that would move the MSU-LSU game currently scheduled as the Bulldogs’ third contest forward into a season-opening Thursday-night game on ESPN.
The game would mean national exposure and probably a significant payday.
This is an admittedly tempting option, but there are several stumbling blocks here that a person with a working knowledge of poker theory would notice and avoid.
Before we go any further, yes, I am aware of the audacity of this argument. Football and poker could not be more different.
Football is a team sport, poker an individual game.
Football is played in packed stadiums, poker in seedy back rooms.
Football is played by highly conditioned athletes, poker mostly by men with beer guts and deep pockets.
However, there are distinct similarities that would make it obvious to a poker player why playing such a strong opponent to open the season is a bad idea.
Poker is more than a game of cards.
It’s a game of psychology and strategy.
It is a thinking-man’s game, similar to football.
The goal of poker is to find your opponent’s weakness and exploit it.
And while poker players may not attack this weakness by, for instance, blitzing an inexperienced quarterback, they attack it nonetheless.
Football success is determined in wins and losses, while poker success is determined in sheer financial terms (though football is moving further in that direction everyday).
In order to go on the offensive in poker, like football, a player must have a strategy, a plan for victory, just like an athletic director or a head coach would have.
Strategies are as varied as those who use them, just like in football.
But regardless of what strategy the greats of the Texas Hold ‘Em circuit subscribe to, there are several cornerstones of game theory that are universal to successful play.
It is these pillars of psychology that, if considered, would keep any intelligent person from supporting a season-opening game with the Tigers, no matter the supposed benefit.
1. Know your opponent. LSU is one of the premier teams in the nation; this much has been established.
Their talent is incredible, and they will be coming off a blowout win over Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl.
There is nothing to indicate that this team will be weaker in any way in 2007, even without JaMarcus Russell.
If the Bulldogs start their season with LSU, they can forget any hopes of being overlooked.
LSU will be looking to make a statement on national TV at MSU’s expense, a situation that should make State officials wary of the “exposure.”
2. Understand the value of position.
During any hand of poker, there is proven power in acting last or close to last.
The later the position, the more information available to the bettor before he has to decide how much money he wants to sink into the pot.
Applied to football, this strategy means that a team would want to have as many games as possible under its belt before taking on stronger competition.
By keeping Tulane as the opening game, head coach Sylvester Croom and his staff would have a chance to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of their team before starting conference play, not to mention the psychological benefits to a young team of starting the season off with a win.
Now I am not guaranteeing that Mississippi State would beat Tulane in a season-opener, nor I am saying it has no chance of beating LSU.
This brings me to my last strategy.
3. Pick your spots.
When a poker player is winning, the size of his chip stack is a powerful tool.
He can push other players around and virtually dictate the style of play for the entire table.
When he is short-stacked, however, he must look for situations where there are high probabilities of success to put his chips in.
Both financially and physically, Mississippi State is the definition of “short-stacked” when it comes to Southeastern Conference programs.
LSU would be a fine example of a “high-roller.”
In order for Mississippi State to improve its chances for long-term success, it must be extremely selective about where it puts its chips.
Which season-opener has a higher probability of turning out successful for the Bulldogs?
So long as winning is the ultimate goal, there is simply no justification for going “all-in” against LSU in an all-or-nothing season-opener.
The chances for success are too small to justify the negative effects of losing (getting blown out on national television is not the kind of exposure a program needs).
I’m sure Mr. Templeton has his reasons, and I’m sure they make sense to him.
But putting the future of the program on the line for a some immediate cash is a gamble I wouldn’t be willing to make.